The first half of 2025 has been monumental, with opportunities and risks coexisting in the global investment market — DeepSeek emerging, Trump's tariff policies, and conflicts in the Middle East... mooers are both participants in the Capital Markets and witnesses to a great era.
Looking back, consolidating experience, feel free to subscribe to the special topic.2025 Exclusive Mid-Year Review, may all our efforts in the first half of the year lay the groundwork for surprises in the second half.
The Nasdaq Composite Index has surpassed the December 2024 high, once again setting a new historic high, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ reaching an intraday high of 6182 points, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ reaching an intraday high of 20302 points,
Compared to the recent low point after Trump announced the so-called "reciprocal" tariffs in early April, the S&P 500 Index has now rebounded by over 20%.
the subsequent trend of the market is undoubtedly a concern for investors.
Rick Rieder, Chief Investment Officer of Blackrock's Global Fixed Income, stated: "The market was previously stagnant, with a lot of waiting capital on the sidelines. As long as there is no negative news, these assets will naturally attract interest."
However, Wall Street's main bullish investors believe that the S&P 500 Index still has significant upside potential this year.
BMO Chief Investment Strategist Brian Belsky outlined a more optimistic outlook in his latest report released on Tuesday.
He raised the target price for the S&P 500 Index at the end of 2025 from the initial forecast of $6100 to $6700, predicting that the index will rise about 10% from current levels.
According to him:
As concerns over tariffs gradually subside, market sentiment continues to improve, and market responses trend toward stability. The outlook for corporate performance is expected to strengthen further after the second quarter earnings reports in 2025.
However, during the market crash triggered by Trump's "release day tariffs" in April, he temporarily lowered the year-end target price for the S&P 500 Index.
In fact, as the market begins to return to historical highs, more and more buyers are "regaining confidence." Statistics show that during the market crash in April, at least 11 firms on Wall Street lowered their target price for the S&P 500 Index at the end of 2025, forming a distinct "V" shaped bottom.
Currently, at least 8 companies have raised the year-end target price for the index.
In the ever-changing financial markets, ETF investment has become a focal point for many investors. In the first half of this year, the market environment was complex and volatile, with expectations of interest rate cuts and hopes for a ceasefire in the Middle East intertwining, bringing many uncertainties to the global financial markets. Against this backdrop, the performance of the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. stock market has been particularly noteworthy, as its trends not only influence the sentiment of global investors but are also closely related to the performance of various ETFs. So, amid the market fluctuations in the first half of the year, which ETFs stood out and achieved explosive growth? Let's delve into the market together and explore the secrets behind it.
Topping the list of gains is the leveraged gold mining stock ETF that reflects rising gold prices and high beta values.
In April, COMEX gold prices surged above $3,500 per ounce, driving up gold mining stocks and leveraged ETFs. The active trading of retail investors accelerated the inflow into 2-3 times ETFs.
$MicroSectors Gold Miners 3X Leveraged ETN (GDXU.US)$ 、 $Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (JNUG.US)$ 、 $Direxion Daily Gold Miners Index Bull 2X Shares (NUGT.US)$ 、 $Sprott Gold Miners ETF (SGDM.US)$ 、 $VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ.US)$ 、 $Ishares Inc Msci Global Gold Miners Etf (RING.US)$
Several defense-related ETFs have made the list due to geopolitical risks. Increased NATO budgets and heightened tensions in the Middle East have boosted the performance of Aerospace and Defense-related ETFs.
$Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (EUAD.US)$ 、 $Direxion Daily Aerospace & Defense Bull 3X Shares ETF (DFEN.US)$ 、 $GLOBAL X DEFENSE TECH ETF (SHLD.US)$
On one hand, with the recovery of semiconductor exports, coupled with the South Korean central bank maintaining the policy interest rate unchanged, risk appetite has improved. KORU, as the only non-GAINIANNBANKUAI fund, benefits from the rebound of the South Korean stock market led by Technology stocks and policy support.
$Direxion Shares Etf Trust Direxion Daily So Korea Bull 3X Shs (KORU.US)$
Looking at it from another perspective, the total net inflow for the top ten ETFs in the U.S. market is about $155 billion, accounting for approximately two-thirds of the primary market activity in the U.S. ETF market during the period. Investment Funds continue to focus on Vanguard ETFs, which are characterized by low costs and a wide range of beta values.
Focusing on what helps to discover, Investment Funds continue to pay attention to Vanguard ETFs, which are characterized by low costs and a wide range of beta values. Taking the list as an example:
Stocks ( $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO.US)$ 、 $Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI.US)$ ) and core Bonds ( $Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND.US)$ 、 $Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT.US)$ ) and selected overseas Assets ( $Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS.US)$ 、 $Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF (VGK.US)$ ) the balanced allocation has become significant.
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Editor/Lee