Billionaire investor Peter Thiel's fund made significant portfolio adjustments in the third quarter: completely divesting from NVIDIA and slashing Tesla holdings by 76%. At the same time, the fund established new positions in Microsoft and Apple, with the overall scale of its U.S. stock portfolio shrinking by about two-thirds. This move validates his warnings about the 'AI hype cycle.'
As one of the most influential investors in Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel's latest move has once again sent a clear signal of caution to the fervent AI market.
According to the latest 13F filing submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Thiel Macro LLC fully divested its position in NVIDIA during the third quarter. This move is particularly noteworthy as it occurred at a time when NVIDIA's market capitalization surpassed $5 trillion, with Wall Street analysts widely regarding it as an 'unshakable' leader. Additionally, NVIDIA is set to release its latest earnings report on November 19.
In tandem with the sell-off, a complete portfolio reshaping took place. The fund significantly reduced its total U.S. equity holdings from approximately $212 million in the second quarter to just $74.4 million. At the same time, the fund established significant new positions in Microsoft and Apple.
Portfolio Overhaul: Liquidation of AI Leader Results in Two-Thirds Reduction in Total Holdings
Thiel Macro LLC’s actions in the third quarter were nothing short of aggressive. Filings show that the fund not only liquidated its entire stake in NVIDIA, which accounted for 40% of its previous quarter's portfolio weight—selling all 537,700 shares—but also divested another significant holding, Vistra Energy, which represented 19% of its portfolio weight.
This decision stands in stark contrast to NVIDIA’s robust fundamentals. Reports indicate that NVIDIA’s quarterly revenue surged from $39.3 billion to $46.7 billion, with its data center business revenue growing by 56%. However, Thiel’s choice appears to be based on a judgment of future valuation rather than current performance.
Overall, the fund’s portfolio turnover exceeded 80%. Total holdings shrank dramatically from approximately $212 million to $74.4 million. This series of moves resembles a decisive strategic contraction rather than a mild rebalancing.
Shift to Tech Giants: New Positions Established in Microsoft and Apple, Tesla Stake Reduced
While significantly reducing its positions, Thiel Macro LLC concentrated its remaining funds into two other tech giants. Filings show that the fund purchased shares of Microsoft and Apple for the first time.
The fund newly purchased 49,000 shares of Microsoft and 79,181 shares of Apple in the third quarter. At the same time, it significantly reduced its long-held position in Tesla by selling 207,600 shares, representing a 76% reduction.
By the end of the third quarter, Thiel Macro LLC’s portfolio was left with only three stocks. Among them, Tesla, after the reduction, remained the largest holding, accounting for approximately 38.8%; newly acquired Microsoft and Apple followed closely, representing 34.1% and 27.1% of the portfolio, respectively.
This shift indicates that Thiel now favors platform companies with diversified revenue streams, extensive cloud businesses, hardware ecosystems, and mature software services.
AI Bubble Debate Resurfaces: Thiel Walks the Talk
Thiel’s portfolio adjustments did not come without warning. He had previously warned publicly that the hype cycle in the AI sector has far outpaced its actual economic benefits, comparing the current market frenzy to the dot-com bubble of 1999, when investors paid exorbitant prices for a technology that would take 15 to 20 years to fully materialize.
Liquidating the position in NVIDIA is a strong testament to this view. Although Thiel himself has praised NVIDIA’s leadership in the hardware domain, his investment decision suggests that he believes AI transformation will be a 'slow burn' process. In his view, the companies that can provide lasting economic value are platform-based firms rather than pure-play chipmakers whose valuations are already stretched.
Peter Thiel is not alone among prominent figures expressing concerns about a potential AI bubble. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos once described the AI boom as an “industrial bubble”; Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon pointed out that the market might face a correction period of 12 to 24 months. Additionally, legendary investor James Anderson expressed “unease” about certain financing plans by NVIDIA.
“The Tech Titan Behind the White House”
Peter Thiel holds a pivotal position in the technology and investment sectors, with influence stemming from his founding roles in several disruptive tech companies. He is not only a co-founder of payment giant PayPal and served as its CEO but also the first external investor in Facebook.
Furthermore, he co-founded Palantir, currently one of the most closely watched defense AI companies, where he serves as chairman. Through his Founders Fund, he has invested in a series of high-profile enterprises such as SpaceX and Airbnb. This extensive background spanning fintech, social media, and defense technology makes him a highly influential voice in both technology and capital markets.
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