①Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya believes that NVIDIA has a strong long-term outlook and is expected to maintain its dominance in AI chips in the coming years; ②Despite competition from Google's TPUs, Arya predicts that NVIDIA’s market share will slightly decline from 85% currently to 75% by 2030.
Cailian Press, November 27 (Editor Liu Rui) In recent days, for the once highly favored "AI darling" $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , times have been tough — on one hand, growing concerns in the market about the risk of an "AI bubble" bursting, and on the other hand, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 's custom chip TPU has become another strong competitor to NVIDIA's GPU, posing a challenge to NVIDIA's dominant position in the AI chip market.
However, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya is less concerned. He maintains that NVIDIA’s long-term prospects remain robust and that it will continue to dominate the AI chip market in the coming years. He also reiterated his “buy” rating on NVIDIA.
NVIDIA will remain the industry leader
The Bank of America analyst noted the competitive risks posed by Google’s TPUs to NVIDIA, but he views this as part of a broader race for AI acceleration across the industry, which he believes benefits the entire sector.
He expects the AI data center market to grow fivefold by 2030, reaching approximately USD 1.2 trillion, up from the current market size of USD 242 billion.
Vivek Arya predicts that NVIDIA will retain its leading position in the future, although its market share is expected to slightly decrease from the current estimate of 85% to 75% by 2030.
Additionally, he pointed out that NVIDIA’s stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 25 times future earnings. Therefore, he believes that given the projected revenue and earnings-per-share growth of over 40%, NVIDIA’s stock is still undervalued.
Meanwhile, Vivek Arya stated that another competitor of NVIDIA, AMD, also has a positive long-term outlook. He mentioned that AMD’s stock is currently trading at 33 times the expected earnings for 2026, reflecting its diversified growth drivers in areas such as CPUs, GPUs, embedded systems, and gaming.
“NVIDIA still leads by a generation”
Google's latest version of the TPU, named Ironwood, was released in April this year. Featuring a liquid cooling design, it is specifically engineered to run AI inference workloads.
Last week, Google unveiled its most powerful model to date, Gemini 3, which has been widely acclaimed. Notably, this AI model was trained on Google’s TPUs rather than NVIDIA GPUs. This technological achievement bolsters the credibility of TPUs as a viable alternative to NVIDIA’s GPUs.
However, in another report published last Friday, Vivek Arya noted that despite the competitive pressure from Google’s custom TPU chips, while acknowledging the success of Gemini may overshadow OpenAI’s models, it remains important to emphasize that NVIDIA will continue to maintain a broader presence across the entire ecosystem.
The report stated that NVIDIA GPUs are “available in every cloud and participate in nearly all other LLMs,” offering “the best performance per watt.”
During the mid-session of U.S. stock trading on Tuesday Eastern Time, NVIDIA made a rare post on the social media platform X to reassure the market:
“We are thrilled about Google’s success—they have made tremendous progress in AI, and we will continue to supply our products to Google. NVIDIA is currently a generation ahead of the industry—we are the only platform capable of running all AI models and applicable across various computing scenarios.”
Editor/Liam