The 'year-end rally effect' in the auto market during Q4 is weaker than in previous years. Apart from Leapmotor, which continues to lead with a monthly delivery volume of around 70,000 units, deliveries for Nio, XPeng Motors, and Li Auto have all declined to varying degrees compared to the previous month.
Cailian Press reported on December 1 (by reporter Xu Hao) that the new forces in car manufacturing successively announced their November delivery performance on December 1. As expected by Li Bin, Chairman of Nio,$NIO Inc (NIO.US)$the “year-end rally effect” in the auto market may be weaker than in previous years. Except for Leapmotor, which achieved a slight increase of 38 units and continued to lead with a monthly delivery volume of around 70,000 units, deliveries from Nio, XPeng Motors, and Li Auto all declined to varying degrees compared to the previous month; while Leapmotor faced delivery volatility during this critical period of transition to all-electric vehicles,$Li Auto (LI.US)$it ranked at the bottom of the list once again.
Since March this year, Leapmotor has maintained a growth trend for nine consecutive months, achieving a new high of 70,327 deliveries in November and continuously breaking the monthly sales record for emerging automakers. 'Leapmotor has achieved its annual sales target of 500,000 units 45 days ahead of schedule and will aim for a sales target of 1 million units by 2026,' said Zhu Jiangming, Chairman of Leapmotor, who also set higher goals for the company’s development while announcing the delivery figures.
To consolidate its market share and sustain growth momentum, Leapmotor has been actively enhancing its product lineup. On November 21, Leapmotor unveiled the A10, the first model from its new A platform, at the Guangzhou Auto Show, completing the final piece of its A, B, C, and D series matrix. This SUV, equipped with dual flagship chips and full-scenario intelligent assistance features, caters to the needs of mainstream family users. Meanwhile, the subsequently launched personalized coupe, Lafa5, targets post-95s youth with configurations such as LiDAR autonomous driving and a long range of 605 km.
$XPeng (XPEV.US)$XPeng Motors delivered 36,728 new vehicles in November, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12.58%. This marks the first time in six months that XPeng Motors has recorded a month-on-month decline.
In terms of models, XPeng’s MONA M03, P7+, and G7 continue to sell well. The XPeng X9 Super Range Extender, which completed its launch in November, broke the historical daily reservation record for the X9 within just one hour of its release and will become another growth point for XPeng. Additionally, XPeng Motors is accelerating its overseas expansion, delivering 39,773 vehicles abroad from January to November, representing a year-on-year increase of 95%.
$NIO Inc. USD OV (NIO.SG)$A total of 36,275 vehicles were delivered in November, representing a year-over-year increase of 76.3%. Among these, the Nio brand delivered 18,393 vehicles, marking continuous growth for four consecutive months; the Lede brand delivered 11,794 vehicles, with a year-over-year increase of 132.1%; and the entry-level Firefly brand delivered 6,088 vehicles, hitting a new all-time high for four consecutive months.
‘The new ES8 has received ample orders, and production and deliveries in December will further accelerate significantly, pushing Nio’s December deliveries to an all-time high while ensuring the Q4 delivery guidance remains unchanged.’ Despite the month-on-month decline, Nio stated that its Q4 delivery guidance remains between 120,000 and 125,000 vehicles. This implies that it needs to achieve a delivery record exceeding 43,000 vehicles in December.
By comparison, Li Auto delivered 33,181 vehicles in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of year-on-year declines. Currently, Li Auto is facing pressure from ramping up production of its pure electric models. Li Xiang, Chairman of Li Auto, revealed that cumulative orders for the pure electric SUV models i6 and i8 have exceeded 100,000 units. To address supply issues, the i6 battery supply has officially adopted a 'dual-supplier' model, with expectations that monthly production capacity for the i6 will increase to 20,000 units by early 2026.
Li Auto has provided a delivery guidance of 100,000 to 110,000 vehicles for Q4, which appears relatively conservative compared to XPeng’s 125,000–132,000 vehicles and Nio’s guidance. To meet expectations, Li Auto needs to deliver more than 35,000 new vehicles in December.
Li Xiang emphasized that Li Auto is building long-term competitiveness in three aspects: organization, products, and technology, driving the transformation of automobiles towards embodied intelligence. Ma Donghui, President of Li Auto, proposed an overall strategic goal of 'Li Auto regaining its leading position in range-extended products by 2026' during the Q3 earnings call. 'By 2026, domestic new energy penetration in China may reach 55%-60%, with high-end new energy market penetration exceeding 60%.' Ma Donghui provided an optimistic forecast for next year’s auto market development, stating, 'Li Auto is confident in achieving a historical breakthrough in delivery volume by 2026.'
Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Passenger Car Association, noted that 'due to the significant tightening of trade-in and scrappage subsidy policies in some regions, the market has experienced multiple rounds of rushing to benefit from policy subsidies in the past few months, resulting in a substantial pull-forward effect. Many consumers have recently adopted a wait-and-see attitude.' Regarding the trend of the auto market in the fourth quarter of this year, Cui predicted that the market would follow a 'low start, high middle, and flat end' trajectory.
Editor/Liam