In 2025, global capital markets experienced intense volatility and repeatedly hit new highs, driven by both political upheaval and technological leaps. Trump's return to the White House ignited policy uncertainty, while the AI arms race spurred the expansion of the "trillion-dollar club." Gold historically surpassed $4,000 per ounce, and NVIDIA reached a market capitalization of $5 trillion – in this year, the market trembled under the shadow of tariffs but also reveled in the frenzy of computing power.
Let us look back at this tumultuous year, bridging the past and future as we prepare for an even more uncertain and imaginative 2026.
I. Trump’s Official Inauguration: Markets Enter “Policy Reassessment” Mode
On January 20, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States on Capitol Hill, becoming the first U.S. president in history to regain office after a non-consecutive term. His victory was no accident – lingering high inflation, ongoing immigration issues, and strong demands for manufacturing reshoring collectively formed the popular foundation for "MAGA 2.0." Investors began preparing for a new wave of trade protectionism, Tax Cuts 2.0, and a potentially tougher stance towards China.
II. DeepSeek Impact: Domestic Large Models Ignite New AI Investment Themes
On January 27, DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, released DeepSeek-V3, an open-source large model supporting 128K context length with reasoning capabilities fully comparable to GPT-4 Turbo, and announced that it would offer weights free of charge to global developers. This move was dubbed by The Economist as the "Sputnik Moment of the East."
The market reacted swiftly, with Hong Kong-listed stocks and U.S.-listed Chinese AI-related concept stocks embarking on a more than one-month upward trend. This "Eastern AI Blitz" not only shattered the narrative of Western technological monopoly but also prompted global capital to reassess the long-term value of Chinese technology assets.
III. Trump Wields Global Tariff Stick, Market Panic Surges
On April 2, the Trump administration officially signed an executive order announcing the implementation of a "reciprocal tariff" policy on goods from major trading partners such as the EU, China, Mexico, and Canada, escalating the tariff crisis between the U.S. and China.
This move immediately cast a shadow over global trade and capital markets, causing major stock indices to come under collective pressure and significantly increasing risks of global trade frictions. Global supply chain expectations deteriorated instantly, with the S&P 500 plummeting 9% in a single week.
However, just a week later, on April 9, Trump suddenly posted on social media that he had authorized a 90-day tariff suspension measure against certain countries. This dramatic reversal was interpreted by the market as a 'tactical concession in an election year'—showing a tough stance to consolidate his base while avoiding economic repercussions.hard landingfrom impacting re-election prospects. Risk appetite quickly recovered:$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$The market rebounded 5.7% that week, marking the largest weekly gain since November 2020.
Trump’s 'maximum pressure' approach is gradually becoming a predictable policy tool, and the market is learning to find signals amid the noise. When Trump's new round of tariff threats in October once again triggered global market volatility, unlike the abrupt shock in April, the market had already accumulated experience in responding, betting that it was highly likely to be another 'TACO trade,' with panic levels significantly reduced.
IV. Powell Sends Dovish Signals, Rate Cut Expectations Surge
On August 22, Federal Reserve Chair Powell delivered a speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Banking Conference, explicitly stating that 'inflation has materially receded, and there are signs of moderate slowdown in the labor market,' acknowledging for the first time that 'the path to rate cuts is clear.'
The market immediately priced in a 75-basis-point rate cut by 2025, causing the U.S. Treasury yield curve to steepen, with tech stocks leading the rally and capital flowing back into growth sectors.
V. Oracle Partners with OpenAI, 'AI Circular Trade' Shakes Up Tech World
On September 10, $Oracle (ORCL.US)$ Oracle signed a $300 billion computing agreement with OpenAI, under which OpenAI will purchase $300 billion worth of computing power from Oracle over approximately five years starting from 2027. This deal, dubbed by Wall Street as the 'oil contract of the AI era,' not only caused Oracle's stock price to soar 35% in a single day but also marked the beginning of a new narrative around the 'AI closed loop.'
Since then, the interconnected transaction models within the AI ecosystem have drawn market attention. These models include suppliers providing funding to clients through equity investments (e.g., $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Plan to invest in OpenAI), cross-shareholding (e.g., NVIDIA holding$CoreWeave (CRWV.US)$more than 5% of shares), as well as revenue-sharing agreements between suppliers and clients (e.g.,$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$with OpenAI).
Vertical integration from computing power, data to model deployment has become the new paradigm for giant competition. While these complex agreements help accelerate data center construction and lock in capacity, they have also sparked market concerns about an 'AI bubble.'
VI. Federal government shutdown, fiscal impasse repeats
The 2025 U.S. federal government shutdown began on October 1 due to a stalemate between the two parties over issues such as health insurance subsidies and border security, preventing Congress from passing appropriations bills.
The government shutdown forced approximately 750,000 federal employees to work without pay or go on leave, delayed the release of key economic data (such as non-farm payroll and CPI), causing confusion in policy expectations, with markets 'groping in the dark'; the shutdown also triggered liquidity strains, impacting the stock market, with the VIX panic index briefly rising to 28. It wasn’t until November 12 that a temporary funding bill was passed, reopening the government. This shutdown lasted 43 days, setting a new historical record.
VII. Gold breaks through $4,000,safe-haven assetsEntering a new era
On October 8, spot gold surged to the psychological threshold of $4,000 per ounce, hitting a new all-time high. Amid escalating global economic and geopolitical risks, investors are flocking to the gold market with unprecedented enthusiasm seeking refuge.
This milestone is driven by the convergence of multiple forces: for instance, political instability and fiscal risks have fueled safe-haven buying, the U.S. government shutdown has heightened uncertainty around the Fed's policies, the narrative of “de-dollarization,” continued enthusiasm among global central banks for gold purchases, and concerns about an AI bubble.
8. NVIDIA surpasses $5 trillion market cap, with the AI leader reaching historic heights
On October 29, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The closing market capitalization reached $5.02 trillion, making it the first company in human history to break through the $5 trillion mark, surpassing the combined total of Apple, Microsoft, and Saudi Aramco. This milestone comes just four months after NVIDIA first broke through the $4 trillion threshold.
NVIDIA is no longer merely a hardware company but rather an 'operating system provider for the AI era.' The moat constructed by its CUDA ecosystem ensures that even competitors with equivalent computing power struggle to challenge its dominant position within the ecosystem. As the Financial Times put it: 'In Jensen Huang’s hands lies the key to the future.'
9. Google releases Gemini 3, with 'Google Chain' emerging as a new AI narrative
November 18 $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ The release of the Gemini 3 large model triggered significant market reactions. Trained primarily on Google's TPU chips, the model’s performance is now close to or even surpasses that of OpenAI’s ChatGPT. This technological breakthrough has led investors to reassess the competitive landscape of the AI chip market.
According to a report by The Information in the same month, Meta is considering the large-scale adoption of Google’s self-developed AI chips in its data centers and may begin leasing them as early as next year, providing another boost to Google’s stock price.
Market attention is focused on Google’s rise and its competition with NVIDIA, putting pressure on NVIDIA’s stock and challenging its monopolistic position. 'Google Chain' has become the new narrative, driving up the share prices of Google and other core companies across the upstream and downstream supply chain.
10. The Federal Reserve announces its third interest rate cut of the year and initiates the RMP (Reserve Management Purchasing Program)
On Wednesday, December 10, the Federal Reserve announced after the FOMC monetary policy meeting that it had lowered the target range for the federal funds rate from 3.75%-4.00% to 3.50%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive FOMC meeting where the Fed has cut rates by 25 basis points each time, bringing the cumulative rate cuts this year to 75 basis points. Since September of last year, the total easing in this cycle amounts to 175 basis points.
The overnight announcement introduced the Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) program, under which short-term Treasuries will be purchased as needed to maintain an ample supply of reserves. The plan is to buy $40 billion worth of short-term Treasuries over the next 30 days. This is the latest move following the formal end of quantitative tightening last week, aimed at maintaining sufficient reserves and injecting liquidity into the market.
In 2025, we witnessed the return of strong political figures, an AI boom sweeping through capital and industries, and a complete restructuring of global asset pricing logic. As gold historically surpassed $4,000 per ounce, as NVIDIA's market capitalization exceeded the GDP of most countries, and as AI models began to establish their own 'property rights chains' and value loops – we realized that the world is undergoing a silent yet profound paradigm shift.
This year, the market sought order amidst chaos, firmly betting on seemingly small but certain trends amid high uncertainty. As Warren Buffett once said, “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy—but most importantly, never waste a crisis.”
In 2026, the world may become even more volatile but also more promising. Because the future is never predicted—it is shaped by every decision made today, every line of code written, and every trade executed.
Looking back at 2025, how did your investment returns fare?
Did you reap substantial gains by making the right decisions?
Which stocks or industries do you believe hold opportunities?
Come share your annual summary!
Looking to pick stocks or analyze them? Want to know the opportunities and risks in your portfolio?For all your investment-related questions, just ask Futubull AI!
Editor/Wendey