Overview of Key Events This Week
Super Central Bank Week is Here! Markets May Face the Impact of a Rate Hike by the Bank of Japan
The momentum of global monetary policy easing in 2025 is coming to an end. During the final intensive week of central bank decisions this year, a clear trend of 'applying the brakes' has emerged among advanced economies. The policy paths of major global central banks are showing significant divergence, adding new uncertainties for next year’s markets.
On December 18 (Thursday), the central banks of the UK and Europe will announce their interest rate decisions. Immediately following, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday. Meanwhile, other central banks, including those of Thailand, Indonesia, Sweden, Norway, Mexico, Russia, and Hungary, will also release their latest interest rate decisions.
The most notable signal comes from Japan. The market widely expects that the Bank of Japan will conduct a landmark interest rate hike this Friday, which starkly contrasts with the global trend of rate cuts over the past year.
Moreover, European central banks appear to be more cautious. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists unanimously predict that the Bank of England will cut interest rates this week, but this is likely to be one of the final steps in its current easing cycle. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and may raise its growth forecast. Markets will closely watch for any hints of a shift toward tightening.
Against the backdrop of these developments, the Federal Reserve has provided a 'vague outlook' for its future policy path after its most recent rate cut. As other advanced economies pause or conclude their easing cycles, and Japan even prepares for a rate hike, the Fed could find itself in a position of 'acting alone' if it continues to cut rates. This would reshape the logic of global capital flows and asset pricing.
US November Nonfarm Payroll and CPI Data Releases Are Approaching
On December 16 (Tuesday), the US will release its first nonfarm payroll report since the government shutdown, which includes partial October data and complete November data. Subsequently, on December 18 (Thursday), the first CPI report in nearly two months will be released, also covering partial October and complete November data. Based on consensus estimates, economists predict that 35,000 jobs were added last month, indicating a continued slowdown in the labor market. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise by more than 3%.
China’s Key Economic Data for November Will Be Released Soon
On December 15 (Monday), China will release a series of key economic data for November, including retail sales of consumer goods, industrial production above designated size, employment, housing prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities, and fixed-asset investment.
To Address AI Power Shortages, NVIDIA to Host Relevant Thematic Summit
To address power shortages hindering the development of AI, NVIDIA will host a closed-door summit during the week of December 15–21. The meeting will convene startups in the power and electrical engineering sectors, some of which NVIDIA has invested in, to discuss solutions. This move sends a clear signal to the market: energy has become a critical component of the AI race, and NVIDIA is ensuring its future growth by building an ecosystem.
ByteDance’s Volcano Engine FORCE Power Conference to Be Held on December 18–19
ByteDance's Volcano Engine FORCE Conference will be held on December 18-19, with the potential unveiling of new products. Industry insiders widely anticipate that a significant upgrade or new release of its long-awaited AI assistant 'DouBao' will be the main highlight. According to the official website, key highlights include: 1. The release of a new member in the DouBao large model series. 2. Cutting-edge exploration of Agent industry applications. 3. An extensive large-scale AI exhibition zone.
The first MUSA Developer Conference by Moore Threads will unveil a new generation of GPU architecture.
Moore Threads' inaugural MUSA Developer Conference will take place from December 19 to 20 at the Zhongguancun International Innovation Center in Beijing. During the event, a new generation of GPU architecture and a comprehensive product portfolio will be unveiled. Zhang Jianzhong, founder, chairman, and CEO of Moore Threads, will systematically elaborate on the company’s full-stack development strategy and future vision centered around MUSA for the first time. Additionally, he will announce the latest GPU architecture and introduce an integrated layout encompassing product systems, core technologies, and industry solutions, while sharing implementation cases across multiple fields and updates on ecosystem development.
Key earnings calendar for the new week
Monday (December 15)
Keywords: China's key economic data for November, housing prices in 70 cities, remarks by Federal Reserve officials
In terms of economic data, attention should be paid to a series of critical economic indicators released by China for November.
10:00 Year-on-year growth rates of China's retail sales of consumer goods and industrial value-added output for November.
18:00 Monthly change rate of industrial production in the Eurozone for October.
21:30 Monthly change rate of Canada's CPI and the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the U.S. in December.
23:00 US December NAHB Housing Market Index
In terms of financial events, the monthly data for housing prices in 70 cities will be released, and Fed officials Milan and Williams will deliver speeches.
09:30 National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities
10:00 State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the status of national economic operations
22:30 Fed Governor Milan delivers a speech
23:30 Permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams speaks on the economic outlook
Tuesday (December 16)
Keywords: US Novembernonfarm payroll data
In terms of economic data, key attention can be paid to the US November non-farm payroll data.
15:00 UK November unemployment rate, UK November number of unemployment benefit claimants (in ten thousand people)
16:15 France December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
16:30 Germany December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
17:00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary
17:30 UK December Manufacturing PMI Preliminary, UK December Services PMI Preliminary
18:00 Germany December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone December ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone October Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance (€ billion)
21:30 US November Unemployment Rate, US November Seasonally Adjusted Nonfarm Payrolls (10,000 people), US October Retail Sales Month-over-Month Rate
22:45 US December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Preliminary, US December S&P Global Services PMI Preliminary
23:00 US September Business Inventories Month-over-Month Rate
Wednesday (December 17)
Keywords: Micron Technology Earnings Report, HashKey, Medline IPO
In terms of economic data, there are no significant releases from China or the U.S. Investors may focus on relevant European economic data and crude oil inventory levels.
05:30 U.S. API Crude Oil Inventory (in million barrels) for the week ending December 12
15:00 UK November CPI Month-over-Month, UK November Retail Price Index Month-over-Month
17:00 Germany December IFO Business Climate Index
18:00 Eurozone November Final CPI Year-over-Year
19:00 UK December CBI Industrial Orders Balance
23:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory (in million barrels) for the week ending December 12
In terms of financial events, Fed official Williams will deliver a speech; pay attention to his remarks on the U.S. dollar and other topics.
01:45 Bank of Canada Governor Macklem delivers a speech
22:05 FOMC Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams delivers opening remarks at the 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Structure Conference hosted by the New York Fed
In terms of earnings reports, major storage chip manufacturer $Micron Technology (MU.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings report after the US stock market closes on the 17th. Investors hope to gain insights into the health of the storage industry through this report.
In terms of new stock offerings, both Hong Kong and US markets will see significant IPOs on December 17. Hong Kong’s first licensed virtual asset trading platform targeting retail users, $HASHKEY HLDGS (03887.HK)$ , plans to list on the Main Board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 17, potentially becoming the first crypto-asset stock in Hong Kong. Meanwhile, medical supplies giant $Medline (MDLN.US)$ is set to go public on Nasdaq on December 17, with a maximum fundraising scale of USD 5.37 billion, aiming to become the largest US IPO of 2025.
Thursday (December 18)
Keywords: Bank of England and European Central Bank interest rate decisions, US November inflation data
In terms of economic data, the November CPI figures, which could influence the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy direction, will be released.
9:00 China's November Swift RMB share in global payments
15:00 Switzerland's November trade balance (in billion Swiss francs)
20:00 UK BoE Interest Rate Decision up to December 18
21:30 US November Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year, US November Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-over-Month, US Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending December 13 (in ten thousands)
23:30 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the Week Ending December 12 (in billion cubic feet)
In terms of financial events, attention can be paid to the interest rate decision outcomes from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank.
20:00 Bank of England releases interest rate decision and meeting minutes
21:15 The European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision.
21:45 ECB President Lagarde holds press conference on monetary policy
Regarding earnings reports, $Accenture (ACN.US)$ will release earnings reports pre-market, $Nike (NKE.US)$ 、 $FedEx (FDX.US)$ will release the previous fiscal quarter's earnings report post-market.
Friday (December 19)
Keywords: Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision, US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
In terms of economic data, key focus can be placed on Japan’s November Core CPI and the US December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
07:30 Japan's November Core CPI Year-over-Year
15:00 Germany's November PPI Month-over-Month, UK's November Public Sector Net Borrowing (in billion GBP), UK's November Seasonally Adjusted Retail Sales Month-over-Month
17:00 Eurozone's October Seasonally Adjusted Current Account Balance (in billion EUR)
19:00 UK's December CBI Retail Sales Differential
21:30 Canada's October Retail Sales Month-over-Month
23:00 Eurozone's December Preliminary Consumer Confidence Index, US's December Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, US's December Final One-Year Inflation Expectations, US's November Annualized Existing Home Sales (in million units)
In terms of financial events, the Bank of Japan will announce the outcome of its interest rate decision. The market broadly anticipates a rate hike and is closely watching for signals regarding the future direction of monetary policy.
To be determined: Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference on monetary policy
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!
Editor/KOKO