Earlier this month, Trump stated that he had approved NVIDIA's sale of the H200 GPU to China. Investment firm Raymond James believes that NVIDIA (NVDA.US) and AMD (AMD.US) may see modest growth potential from the Chinese market.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, investment firm Raymond James believes that $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ may achieve moderate growth potential from the Chinese market.
Analyst Simon Leopold wrote in a note to clients: "There are still multiple uncertainties at present, making it difficult to precisely evaluate the final outcome. However, under an opportunistic scenario, we estimate that AMD could generate additional revenue of approximately $500 million to $800 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share potentially increasing by about $0.10 to $0.20; NVIDIA might secure additional revenue of approximately $7 billion to $12.5 billion, corresponding to a non-GAAP earnings per share increase of about $0.15 to $0.30 by 2026."
Leopold reiterated a 'Strong Buy' rating for NVIDIA and an 'Outperform' rating for AMD.
If government approval is obtained smoothly, NVIDIA plans to begin delivering its H200 series GPUs to the Chinese market starting mid-February next year.
According to three people familiar with the matter, the first batch of these GPUs is expected to be shipped before the Lunar New Year. Two of the sources stated that the initial orders will mainly rely on existing inventory, with shipments estimated at 5,000 to 10,000 modules, corresponding to approximately 40,000 to 80,000 H200 chips.
Sources indicated that after obtaining government approval, NVIDIA will further expand production capacity, with related capacity orders set to begin acceptance in the second quarter of 2026.
A report on Monday indicated that $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ / $BABA-W (09988.HK)$ is considering purchasing 40,000 to 50,000 AMD MI308 AI accelerators. Leopold pointed out that Alibaba’s potential order could bring in $675 million in sales, although this revenue will be realized over multiple quarters.
It is worth noting that despite the recent challenging period for artificial intelligence (AI)-related stocks, several Wall Street analysts have stated that looking ahead to 2026, they would continue to hold the chip stocks they favor. Bank of America (BofA) has claimed that NVIDIA is expected to maintain robust growth momentum next year, with new products being launched continuously. Institutions such as Jefferies have also specifically recommended NVIDIA. $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$ etc.
Editor/KOKO