①Generally, before the launch of a new generation of HBM products, suppliers often reduce the prices of previous-generation products; therefore, this price hike is relatively rare. ②Apart from NVIDIA, order volumes from companies such as Google and Amazon have also significantly increased. ③Micron previously disclosed that its entire HBM supply for 2026 has already been sold out.
According to a report by South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo on December 24, as reported by the STAR Market Daily, $Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. (SSNLF.US)$ memory suppliers such as SK Hynix have raised the price of HBM3E for next year by nearly 20%. Typically, before the release of a new generation of HBM products, suppliers tend to lower the prices of the previous generation products. Therefore, this price hike is relatively rare in the industry.
Behind this lies the combined effect of supply and demand. On the supply side, memory manufacturers anticipate increased demand for the sixth-generation HBM (i.e., HBM4) next year, leading to greater investment in its production capacity, which has resulted in a backlog of HBM3E production capacity.
On the demand side, apart from $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , order volumes from companies such as $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ 、 $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ have also significantly increased.
Among these, each NVIDIA H200 chip is equipped with six HBM3E chips; Google’s seventh-generation TPU and Amazon’s Trainium, both equipped with HBM3E, are set to begin shipping next year. The quantity of HBM installed in these two products has increased by approximately 20% to 30% compared to the previous generation, with the former using eight HBM3E chips per unit and the latter using four HBM3E chips.
KB Securities noted that due to the surge in ASIC demand, Samsung, whose main customers are ASIC-focused, will see its total HBM shipments in 2026 potentially triple compared to 2025, estimated to reach 11.1 billion gigabits (Gb). Moreover, it predicts that revenue share in the HBM market next year will be 55% for HBM4 and 45% for HBM3E, with HBM4 rapidly absorbing HBM3E demand starting from the third quarter of next year.
Notably, Micron similarly provided an optimistic outlook for HBM during last week's earnings call.
Company executives revealed that Micron’s supply volume of HBM for the entire calendar year 2026 has already been agreed upon with customers in terms of both price and quantity and is fully booked. It anticipates that the total addressable market (TAM) for HBM will reach USD 100 billion by 2028 (compared to USD 35 billion in 2025), with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40%. Micron expects its capital expenditure for 2026 to reach CNY 20 billion, allocated to support HBM and 1-gamma DRAM supply.
China Merchants Securities stated that subsequent capital expenditures for DRAM and NAND in the memory industry are expected to continue growing but will provide limited assistance to capacity in 2026. It forecasts that DRAM and NAND capital expenditures in 2026 will grow by 14% and 5% year-on-year, respectively, though expansion priorities will still favor high-end AI memory, while NAND-related investments will lag behind.
Editor/Doris