The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) disclosed plans to hold a public hearing at the end of January regarding TMC the metals' application for deep-sea mining in international waters.
This will be the first time the United States reviews such an application, which is expected to trigger widespread controversy and opposition, pushing the concept industry of deep-sea mining into the spotlight.
The deep-sea mining industry, fraught with uncertainties, is about to face a controversial moment in the new year.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced this week that it plans to hold a public online hearing at the end of next month regarding the application submitted by Canada$TMC the metals (TMC.US)$for deep-sea mining in international waters.
This marks the first time the United States will review seabed mining licenses outside its territorial waters, a move that undoubtedly will lead to conflicts within the international rule system.
TMC is currently seeking approval from the U.S. government to operate in the mineral nodule-rich areas of the Pacific containing nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper. The company aims to commence so-called 'commercial mining' by 2027, but this timeline carries significant uncertainty.
According to previous reports by The Paper, President Trump signed an executive order in April this year requiring the government to 'accelerate the review and issuance of procedures for exploration permits and commercial mining permits in areas beyond national jurisdiction,' rapidly developing the U.S.'s ability to mine and process minerals both domestically and in international waters.
Under the requirements of this executive order, NOAA is expediting the processing of TMC's mining application.
The issue lies in the fact that the U.S. approval process will directly conflict with the International Seabed Authority. The International Seabed Authority, under the United Nations, is responsible for managing the international seabed area and its resources. The United States has not ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and, therefore, is not a member of the International Seabed Authority. To date, the Seabed Authority has not approved any activities other than the exploration of potential mining areas.
Beyond the question of 'who is qualified to issue mining permits in the high seas,' environmental and economic concerns are also hard to ignore.
In response to the environmental impact of large-scale seabed mining, nearly 40 countries and regions, including Germany, France, and New Zealand, have called for a moratorium or complete ban on seabed mining. Therefore, even if$TMC the metals (TMC.US)$the company secures a permit from the U.S. government, it will still face significant legal challenges. In August this year, 130 scientists signed a letter opposing mining, stating that humanity's understanding of the deep ocean remains severely limited.
The bigger issue lies at the economic level—extracting golf-ball-sized metallic nodules from the deep sea for processing raises significant doubts about commercial feasibility.
Lyle Tritton, an independent copper and nickel mining consultant who recently authored a business analysis report for the National Ocean Protection Alliance, stated that the likelihood of (seabed mining) achieving commercial success within the next 15 years is 'extremely low.' One reason is that the growth rate of metal demand will likely be outpaced by current supply capabilities. For instance, some battery technologies no longer use cobalt and nickel, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the world’s largest cobalt producer, has imposed export restrictions following a sharp drop in valuations.
That said, while the concept has yet to materialize, the capital market continues to fervently speculate on the notion of deep-sea mining. For instance, in the case of companies listed in the U.S.,$TMC the metals (TMC.US)$a stock with no revenue has still recorded a staggering 580% surge after experiencing multiple rounds of volatility this year.
(TMC daily chart, source: TradingView)
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