In the field of technology stock investment, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ the rise of NVIDIA is undoubtedly a remarkable story. Dan Ives, a senior technology analyst at Wedbush Securities, recently gave NVIDIA a bold target price of $250, which has drawn significant market attention. Ives believes that Wall Street has yet to fully recognize NVIDIA's substantial profit potential in the artificial intelligence sector, particularly its critical role across the entire AI technology ecosystem, from training to inference and actual deployment.
This article will delve into NVIDIA's transformation from a gaming graphics card company in the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic to becoming a core force in the new era of computing, as well as its astonishing market capitalization surge to $4 trillion in just a few years. We will also analyze the sources of Ives' confidence in NVIDIA's future growth, including its strategic positioning in the AI domain, its market standing, and the long-term growth potential brought about by the current early stage of enterprise AI adoption.
How did NVIDIA become the king of AI infrastructure from gaming cards in just three years?
During the years when the COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ most reports on NVIDIA in the market were still focused solely on its gaming graphics card business. According to StatMuse, NVIDIA's stock price at the close of November 2021, adjusted for stock splits, was approximately $32, roughly equivalent to the cost of two meals at McDonald's.
Of course, it was still considered a solid tech stock with a market cap of $81 billion, but it was far from being a core pillar in the artificial intelligence space. Then came late 2022, when OpenAI released ChatGPT, the now ubiquitous AI chatbot, and suddenly, the trajectory of development became crystal clear.
Almost overnight, NVIDIA transitioned from a niche tech investment to a key component of the new era of computing.
According to S&P Global data, from 2024 to 2025, NVIDIA's market capitalization soared above $3 trillion and subsequently broke through the $4 trillion mark (representing a 50-fold increase compared to its value at the end of 2021). If one had invested $10,000 in NVIDIA around three years ago, today that investment might have skyrocketed to an impressive $123,000, reflecting a staggering increase of 1,132%.
Over the past year, NVIDIA delivered approximately 40% returns to investors. Since then, the narrative has continued to expand, with NVIDIA emerging as a pivotal enabler in the AI arms race.
NVIDIA’s AI dividend continues to grow, with Dan Ives projecting a $250 price target.
This context helps explain why senior technology analyst Dan Ives is still strongly recommending. Ives believes that 'Mr. Market' continues to underestimate the scale and duration of this artificial intelligence build-out.
He has set an eye-popping price target for NVIDIA, forecasting its stock price to reach $250 by the end of 2026, implying a 32.5% increase from its current $188.61 (as of the close on December 24). Ives is betting that what some investors think they've missed in the AI story is just beginning.
Dan Ives is the Managing Director and Head of Global Technology Research at Wedbush Securities and one of the most frequently cited analysts in the Wall Street technology sector. What sets him apart is his willingness to boldly articulate large figures when explaining major themes, followed by explaining the logic behind them in plain language on television.
Ives has built a reputation for being an early adopter of tech cycle trends. His expertise spans a wide range of areas, including cloud computing, electric vehicles, and the current AI-driven stock market boom. His investment strategy is characterized by a focus on long-term and sustainable growth, with an emphasis on catalyst-driven technologies while maintaining a keen insight into significant platform shifts.
To provide a tangible reference point, Ives is rated as a five-star analyst on TipRanks. Impressively, across as many as 500 ratings, his success rate is as high as 56%, with an average return per rating of approximately 16%. His track record is particularly meaningful, especially when making bold predictions, adding credibility and persuasiveness to his analysis.
Why does Dan Ives believe NVIDIA will reach $250 by the end of 2026?
In Ives' view, his $250 forecast for NVIDIA is entirely based on profit potential that Wall Street has yet to fully model. In an interview, he pointed out that the market still underestimates NVIDIA's critical role across all aspects of AI infrastructure, covering everything from training to inference to actual deployment.
His unwavering confidence in this stock primarily stems from NVIDIA’s massive scale and market positioning. NVIDIA sits upstream of hyperscale cloud service providers, enterprises, and governments, which are racing to advance AI infrastructure development.
NVIDIA's three-year timeline for reshaping its financial performance:
January 2022: $9.8 billion, marking the baseline year before AI-related revenues began to materialize.
January 2023: $4.4 billion (a year-on-year decrease of 55%), as the demand from gaming giants for game-related products and data centers weakened before the AI boom, marking a year of declining performance.
January 2024: $29.8 billion (a year-on-year increase of 581%), the turning point for artificial intelligence.
January 2025: $72.9 billion (a year-on-year increase of 145%), with economies of scale starting to take effect, profit margins growing significantly, and NVIDIA’s dominance in the AI field reflected in its profits.
Past 12 months: $99.2 billion, an annualized earnings level that would have been almost unimaginable two years ago.
Ives further pointed out that given enterprises’ adoption of AI remains at an early stage far from maturity, the current complex geopolitical landscape and evolving trade dynamics have not yet been adequately priced into the capital markets. This is precisely why even small upward adjustments in forecast figures can quickly lead to reasonable outcomes. After all, the development of artificial intelligence is still in its infancy.
According to Ives, the biggest mistake investors continue to make is believing that the investment market in the AI sector is already overly saturated. In reality, he believes the opposite is true—the market is only in the third year of an eight-to-ten-year construction cycle, which is why market volatility has not disrupted the underlying trend.
To further clarify his point, he stated that currently, only about 3% of companies in the United States are effectively utilizing artificial intelligence, while most are still in the evaluation or pilot phase. As a result, Ives pays less attention to hype cycles and more to corporate spending related to AI. Companies are now budgeting for AI rather than merely experimenting as they did in the past.
In fact, Goldman Sachs stated that by 2026, AI companies may invest over $500 billion, noting that analysts’ forecasts for capital expenditures have consistently underestimated the scale of infrastructure development. The growth rate of capital expenditure related to AI infrastructure has far exceeded expectations, surprising investors who were overly fixated on market corrections just a year ago.
Furthermore, Ives pointed out that a significant geopolitical transformation is underway and taking effect. He believes that for the first time in decades, the United States has regained a decisive leading advantage over China in core technology fields, adding a new dimension to the AI narrative.
Editor/Doris