The upcoming week holds numerous highlights as the New Year approaches and global markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and those in Japan and South Korea, will be closed for the New Year's Day holiday. The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest meeting, and Powell’s successor may be announced. Data on China and the U.S. PMI will be released. Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, will officially step down, with Abel taking over as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. The listing of 'Hong Kong's First GPU Stock,' Biren Technology, and the 'First Physical AI Stock,' Wuyi Vision, is imminent.
Overview of Key Events This Week
The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its latest meeting, and Powell’s successor may be announced.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's most recent interest rate decision meeting will become a focal point for the market in the last week of this year. Looking ahead to the new year, investors are highly focused on the potential timing of further interest rate cuts by the Fed. As a central bank tasked with maintaining stable inflation and achieving full employment, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates cumulatively by 75 basis points during its last three meetings in 2025, bringing the benchmark rate down to the current range of 3.50%-3.75%.
However, at the December 9-10 interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to cut rates by 25 basis points through a split vote, and policymakers showed significant differences in their expectations for future interest rate paths. Therefore, the minutes of this meeting may provide clarity on the key points of debate among participants during that session.
Meanwhile, investors are also awaiting whether U.S. President Trump will nominate a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair this week to replace Powell, whose term ends in May of next year. Any signals regarding Trump's nomination could impact the market in the coming week. Currently, the three finalists include Kevin Hassett, Director of the White House National Economic Council; former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh; and Christopher Waller, a Federal Reserve Board member nominated by Trump during his first term.
Given Trump's shifting stance, his preferred candidate seems to change almost weekly, making the possibility of an unexpected nominee quite plausible. Additionally, selecting someone who can foster consensus within the often-divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is crucial. However, regardless of who Trump ultimately nominates, the new Federal Reserve Chair's policy stance will almost certainly be more dovish than Powell’s, making this appointment likely a low-risk event for the markets.
Some analyses suggest this is an uncertain event, with a high likelihood of a delayed announcement.
Global markets, including U.S. and Hong Kong stocks, will be closed for the New Year's Day holiday.
The Hong Kong stock market will operate as a half-day session on Wednesday, December 31, 2025, with trading hours from 09:00 to 12:00. It will be fully closed on Thursday, January 1, 2026.
Note: The operating hours for Northbound Stock Connect services align with Hong Kong stock market trading days, and services will pause when Hong Kong markets are closed.
The U.S. stock market will operate normally on December 31, 2025 (Wednesday), with trading hours from 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM Eastern Time. The market will be closed on January 1, 2026 (Thursday).
In addition, the stock markets of South Korea, Japan, Singapore, and Malaysia will be closed on January 1. The Japanese stock market will also be closed on January 2.
Key economic data such as the China-U.S. PMI will be released.
On December 31, China will release its official manufacturing data for December. Following November’s PMI reading of 49.2, which indicated contraction, the market is closely watching whether year-end momentum will improve further. Institutions such as CITIC Securities expect that, supported by policies, the manufacturing PMI may continue to show a modest recovery trend. Key areas of focus include the recovery of domestic demand reflected by the new orders index and variations in performance across enterprises of different sizes.
On Friday, January 2, US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI data for December will be released. Additionally, pending home sales data for the US in November will be announced on Monday, December 29, while initial jobless claims for the week ending December 27 will be reported on Wednesday, December 31.
Buffett officially 'retires,' stepping down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, succeeded by Abel.
At the age of 95, Buffett will step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway at the end of the year. Over the past 60 years, through this company, he has created an astonishing amount of wealth for himself and the company's shareholders. Vice Chairman of Berkshire, Greg Abel, will assume the position starting January 1, 2026, while Buffett will continue to serve as chairman of the board and temporarily retain a 'significant portion' of his shares.
As one of the most influential investment gurus globally, the Berkshire Hathaway company he helmed delivered cumulative returns of 55,022 times from 1965 to 2024, with an annualized return rate of 19.9%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s cumulative return of 390 times and an annualized return rate of 10.4% during the same period. Due to his long-term exceptional compounded returns, Buffett has been hailed as the 'Oracle of Omaha,' and his outstanding stock-picking ability is highly acclaimed.
Monday (December 29)
Keywords: Summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan policy meeting, weekly EIA crude oil inventory
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the EIA crude oil inventory and the U.S. November pending home sales month-over-month rate.
11:00 PM U.S. November pending home sales index month-over-month rate
23:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory (in million barrels) for the week ending December 19
23:30 U.S. Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for December
In terms of financial events, attention should be paid to the summary of policy opinions from the Bank of Japan.
07:50 Bank of Japan releases summary of opinions from the December monetary policy meeting deliberation committee
14:30 China Council for the Promotion of International Trade holds a regular press conference in December to introduce the results of organizing a delegation of Chinese entrepreneurs to visit the United States, among other topics
Tuesday (December 30)
Keywords: U.S. December Chicago PMI, Hong Kong stock listings such as Insilico Medicine and QoHome Robotics
In terms of economic data, the December Chicago PMI figures can be monitored.
22:00 U.S. FHFA House Price Index month-over-month rate for October
22:45 U.S. December Chicago PMI
In terms of new stock listings, six companies rang the bell simultaneously on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on December 30. These six companies are a 'provider of family robotic systems', $ONEROBOTICS (06600.HK)$ a 'supplier of real-time data infrastructure and analytics solutions', $XUNCE (03317.HK)$ the 'first Physical AI stock' under Chapter 18C, $51WORLD (06651.HK)$ an 'AI-driven drug discovery and development enterprise', $INSILICO (03696.HK)$ a 'provider of prefabricated steel structure building subcontracting services', $USAS BUILDING (02671.HK)$ and a 'premium domestic skincare brand in China'. $FOREST CABIN (02657.HK)$ 。
Wednesday (December 31)
Keywords: Federal Reserve meeting minutes, China's December PMI, unemployment insurance data, half-day trading suspension in Hong Kong stocks
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to China's December PMI data and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week.
09:30 China December Official Manufacturing PMI
09:45 China December RatingDog Manufacturing PMI
21:30 U.S. Initial Jobless Claims for the Week Ending December 27 (in ten thousands)
23:30 U.S. EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the Week Ending December 26 (in ten thousands of barrels)
In terms of financial events, attention should be paid to the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
03:00 Federal Reserve releases minutes from its monetary policy meeting
Regarding market closures, on December 31, 2025 (Wednesday), the Hong Kong stock market will operate as a half-day session due to New Year’s Eve.
Thursday (January 1)
Keywords: Full-day closure of Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets
In terms of financial events, attention can be directed toward new energy vehicle brands releasing their car delivery (or sales) data sequentially.
Regarding market closures, due to the New Year’s Day holiday, Hong Kong stocks, U.S. stocks, and multiple global markets will be closed all day on January 1 (Thursday).
Friday (January 2nd)
Keywords: Biren Technology, U.S. December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
In terms of economic data, the focus can be placed on the U.S. December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
17:00 Eurozone December Manufacturing PMI Final Value
22:45 U.S. December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final Value
In terms of new stock listings, the 'First GPU Stock in Hong Kong' $BIREN TECH (06082.HK)$ will be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange. The company has set its Hong Kong IPO price range at HKD 17.00 to 19.60 per share and plans to begin trading on January 2nd under the stock code '6082.' The company holds binding orders worth approximately RMB 822 million that have yet to be completed. The proceeds from the IPO will primarily be used for the research, development, and commercialization of its next-generation chips.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!
Editor/Rice