①Economic forecasts for 2026 from major banks and financial institutions are being released, with the general consensus among these institutions being that the U.S. economy will experience moderate growth next year, albeit with some uncertainties; ②Regarding interest rate trends, S&P Global predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026.
Cailian News, December 30 (edited by Xia Junxiong) Economic forecasts for 2026 from major banks and financial institutions are being released, with the general consensus among these institutions being that the U.S. economy will experience moderate growth next year, albeit with some uncertainties.
Bank of America Global Research forecasts that U.S. economic growth will remain at a mid-2% level by the end of 2026. This relatively optimistic prediction is based on tax reforms aimed at boosting investment, as well as sustained strength in consumer spending and AI-related corporate investments.
Goldman Sachs' research team also believes that the U.S. economy will outperform most other large economies, although the widespread adoption of AI may place some pressure on employment growth.
Goldman Sachs forecasts global GDP growth of approximately 2.8% in 2026, slightly above overall market expectations, and notes that the end of the U.S. federal government shutdown could bring a rebound effect early next year.
Not all outlooks are optimistic. JPMorgan Global Research estimates a 35% probability of the U.S. and global economies falling into recession in 2026, citing 'stubborn inflation' and a slowing labor market. In other words, even under its baseline scenario, JPMorgan considers the risk of economic downturn significant, roughly equivalent to 'a one-in-three chance.'
Other banks hold more ambiguous stances. Morgan Stanley describes the outlook as 'moderate growth with a wide range of possibilities'—meaning neither recession nor boom. Such phrasing essentially covers all possible outcomes.
Accounting giant EY predicts that U.S. economic growth will slow slightly next year, but affluent consumers and AI-related investments will remain key growth drivers; meanwhile, high prices and borrowing costs will continue to squeeze low-income households.
The firm warned in its latest report: "Consumer spending may remain uneven, with high-income households continuing to drive expenditures while low-income households remain under pressure due to elevated prices, slowing wage and employment growth, and persistently high borrowing costs."
Regarding interest rate trends, S&P Global predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts in the second half of 2026.
Lower interest rates may provide some support for borrowing and investment, but most forecasters remain cautious about when financial conditions (i.e., high borrowing costs) will ease.
Editor/jayden