Next week, the US CPI and PPI, as well as China's import and export data, will be released. The December Consumer Price Index (CPI), to be announced on Tuesday, is particularly critical as it will serve as the most important inflation reference indicator before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting at the end of January. The November PPI data, to be released next Wednesday, will provide clues about upstream inflationary pressures. The November retail sales data, also to be released the same day, will reflect the resilience of consumer spending. The Federal Reserve will issue its latest Beige Book.
In terms of earnings reports, Taiwan Semiconductor’s performance will directly verify global AI demand. The US earnings season kicks off with JPMorgan leading financial stocks. On the event front, the US Supreme Court may announce its tariff ruling next Wednesday, while the risk of a US government shutdown resurfaces, making it crucial to monitor developments closely. Additionally, the G7 meeting will discuss rare earths, nuclear fusion in China, and the AIGC conference. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to rise, with Iran's situation drawing significant attention.
Overview of Key Events
The US Supreme Court has postponed its decision on Trump's tariff case, with the next ruling scheduled for January 14.
On January 9 local time, the US Supreme Court stated that it would not issue a ruling on the Trump administration's tariff case on that day. After taking office in 2025, the Trump administration invoked the US International Emergency Economic Powers Act to introduce a series of measures imposing additional tariffs by issuing executive orders without congressional approval. The US Federal Supreme Court had previously announced that it would rule on the legality of the tariff policy on January 9.
The US Supreme Court completed Friday's disclosure of opinions but did not announce its ruling on Trump's tariffs. There had been speculation that the decision might be released on Friday, but no decision was made. It remains unclear when the final ruling will be issued. The US Supreme Court stated that its next announcement date will be Wednesday, January 14.
The risk of a US government shutdown at the end of the month is rising, with relevant appropriations bills set to be submitted to the Senate for review next week.
US government funding is once again running out, increasing the risk of another shutdown at the end of the month. To avoid a shutdown after January 30, the US Congress is accelerating the appropriations legislation process. According to CCTV News, the House of Representatives has passed three appropriations bills, which will now move to the Senate for consideration. This stage has become the focal point for market participants, as progress here will directly determine the likelihood of a shutdown at the end of the month. If the Senate can pass the bills swiftly, it will help stabilize market sentiment.
Specifically, these three appropriations bills, referred to as the "minibus" spending package, will fund the Department of Energy, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Justice, water projects, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and federal research programs until the end of the fiscal year. Senate Majority Leader John Thune stated that the earliest possible time for the Senate to deliberate on this appropriations package would be next week.
Michael Townsend, Managing Director of Legislative and Regulatory Affairs at Charles Schwab, stated: "Time is extremely tight, and the possibility of a shutdown cannot be ruled out. However, negotiations in Congress to avoid a shutdown appear to be making progress."
A flurry of speeches by Federal Reserve officials is expected next week, along with the release of the Fed's economic conditions "Beige Book."
Next week, numerous Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches, providing investors with further insights. Among them are permanent FOMC voter John Williams, President of the New York Fed; Raphael Bostic, FOMC voter for 2027 and President of the Atlanta Fed; James Bullard, FOMC voter for 2028 and President of the St. Louis Fed; Thomas Barkin, FOMC voter for 2027 and President of the Richmond Fed; Patrick Harker, FOMC voter for 2026 and President of the Philadelphia Fed; and Neel Kashkari, FOMC voter for 2026 and President of the Minneapolis Fed.
On Wednesday, January 14, the Federal Reserve released its latest Beige Book survey on regional economic conditions. The November Beige Book showed that the government shutdown and the application of AI led to a weak labor market, while tariffs and rising healthcare costs pushed up corporate expenditures, potentially exacerbating inflation concerns. Consumer K-shaped bifurcation intensified, with high-income consumer spending remaining resilient, but middle- and low-income households tightening their belts.
CPI in the spotlight: The rallying cry for dollar bulls?
At 21:30 on Tuesday, the US December CPI report will be released. The report is expected to show that inflation remains elevated, supporting the Fed’s decision to pause rate hikes. Analyst Eren Sengezer noted that the December CPI data is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Fed’s January decision, but a large deviation from market expectations (especially in core CPI month-over-month) could trigger market reactions. If the month-over-month rate reaches 0.3% or higher, it may reignite concerns about sticky inflation and boost the dollar in the short term. Conversely, if the reading falls below 0.2%, it may negatively affect the dollar’s performance and push international spot gold prices slightly higher.
Following the CPI, two key US economic data releases are also upcoming: October and November PPI, as well as November retail sales. The market expects month-over-month core PPI growth for these two months to remain at relatively moderate levels. Additionally, Bloomberg forecasts that overall retail sales in November will rebound by 0.7% month-over-month after stagnating in October. This would be primarily driven by a moderate recovery in auto sales following a sharp decline due to the expiration of electric vehicle tax credits, along with sustained strength in online transactions during Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
With geopolitical powder kegs smoking and commodity index rebalancing, is this an opportunity or a trap for gold and silver?
Investors will closely monitor next week’s geopolitical headlines. US Secretary of State Rubio is planning to meet with officials from Denmark and Greenland. In an interview with The New York Times, Trump reiterated his intention to take over Greenland. “Ownership is very important,” Trump told the newspaper. It is difficult to predict the next steps, but if tensions between the EU and the US escalate, it could prompt investors to seek safe-haven assets. In such a scenario, international spot gold may gather upward momentum.
Moreover, turmoil triggered by anti-government protests across Iran, including in the capital Tehran, could also impact market risk sentiment in the short term. Trump stated that if Iranian authorities use lethal force against protesters, the US might take military action against Iran. In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said, “The US and Israel have already tested attacks on Iran, and those attacks and strategies ended in total failure. If they repeat their mistakes, they will face the same outcome.” He added that Iran does not want war but is prepared. A deepening conflict involving Iran and active US participation could continue to benefit international spot gold through inflows of safe-haven funds.
Next week, gold and silver will also face interference from an annual event: the annual rebalancing of major commodity indices such as the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index, which may lead to substantial selling of gold and silver futures.
G7 meeting to discuss rare earths, China’s nuclear fusion, and the AIGC conference.
On January 12, finance ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) will meet in Washington to discuss rare earth issues.
The 2026 Fusion Energy Science and Industry Conference will be held in Hefei, Anhui, from January 16 to 17, as one of the highest-level and most influential science and industry events in the field of fusion energy for the year. Additionally, China's nuclear energy sector has ushered in its first foundational and comprehensive law. On September 12, the Atomic Energy Law of the People’s Republic of China (hereinafter referred to as the 'Atomic Energy Law') was passed by the 17th session of the Standing Committee of the 14th National People's Congress of the People’s Republic of China, and it was announced that it will come into effect on January 15, 2026.
The Fifth AIGC China Developer Conference will take place in Beijing on January 17. The Second China eVTOL Innovation and Development Conference will be held in Shanghai from January 15 to 16. The Detroit Auto Show opens and runs until January 25.
Corporate Earnings: As the US earnings season kicks off, can the S&P 500 break through the 7000-point mark?
The Q4 US earnings season has begun. $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ 、 Citigroup (C.US) 、 $Bank of America(BAC.US)$ 、 $Wells Fargo & Co(WFC.US)$ 、 $Morgan Stanley(MS.US)$ Other Wall Street giants are set to release their results next week. Analysts expect the financial sector's Q4 profit to grow by approximately 7% year-over-year.
The global semiconductor foundry leader Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)will make a significant appearance on January 15. With expectations of rising AI chip demand in the second half of 2025 and recovery in the semiconductor cycle, the market anticipates robust Q4 revenue growth and high utilization rates of advanced process capacity. Its guidance on 2026 capital expenditure and AI chip orders will directly influence the direction of the semiconductor sector at the start of the year.
Following a strong start to 2026 trading, the S&P 500 index is approaching the 7000-point level, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing the 50000-point mark. Can the Q4 earnings season propel the S&P 500 above 7000 points?
Key earnings calendar for the new week
Further reading:[Prize Contest] Q4 Earnings Season Kicks Off! US Bank Stocks + Taiwan Semiconductor Start Together; A Week of Earnings Recap (Jan 12-16)
Monday (January 12)
Keywords: G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting, GigaDevice Innovation Grey Market
In terms of economic data, there are no particularly significant releases.
16:00 Switzerland December Consumer Confidence Index
17:30 Eurozone January Sentix Investor Confidence Index
In terms of financial events, the G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting will be held at an undetermined time, with discussions on rare earth elements.
To be determined: G7 Finance Ministers' Meeting
In terms of performance, $Sify Technologies(SIFY.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings report before the US stock market opens, $Wealthfront(WLTH.US)$ will release its earnings report after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stocks,$Red Star Cold Chain (01641.HK)$ 、 GigaDevice (03986.HK) 、 $BBSB INTL(08610.HK)$The grey market trading will take place from 16:15 to 18:30 on January 12. OmniVision Group (00501.HK) Trading will commence.
In terms of market holidays, trading for US Treasury futures contracts under the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will begin at 15:00 Beijing time.
Tuesday (January 13)
Keywords: US December CPI, remarks by Fed's Williams, JPMorgan earnings, GigaDevice listing
In terms of economic data, investors may focus on the US December CPI figures.
02:00 US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - Award Rate, US 10-Year Treasury Note Auction - Bid-to-Cover Ratio as of January 12
07:50 Japan's November Trade Balance (in billion yen)
19:00 US December NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
21:30 US December Unadjusted CPI Year-over-Year, US December Seasonally Adjusted CPI Month-over-Month, US December Seasonally Adjusted Core CPI Month-over-Month, US December Unadjusted Core CPI Year-over-Year
23:00 US October Annualized New Home Sales Total (in ten thousand units)
In terms of financial events, Williams, the permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a speech.
01:30 Bostic, the 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, will deliver a speech.
01:45 Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voting member and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, will deliver a speech.
07:00 Williams, the permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a speech.
23:00 FOMC voter for 2028 and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will deliver a speech.
In terms of performance, $Bank of New York Mellon (BK.US)$ 、 $Delta Air Lines (DAL.US)$ 、 $JPMorgan(JPM.US)$ will release earnings before the US stock market opens.
In terms of new stocks,$Red Star Cold Chain (01641.HK)$ 、 GigaDevice (03986.HK) 、 $BBSB INTL(08610.HK)$will officially list on January 13.
Wednesday (January 14)
Keywords: US November retail sales month-over-month, November PPI, Bank of America/Wells Fargo & Co/Citi earnings
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the US November retail sales month-over-month, November PPI year-over-year, and month-over-month rates.
05:30 US API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 (in million barrels)
21:30 US November Retail Sales MoM, US November PPI YoY, US November PPI MoM, US Q3 Current Account Balance (USD billion)
23:00 US October Business Inventories MoM, US December Existing Home Sales Annualized (in 10,000 units)
23:30 US EIA Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending January 9 (in 10,000 barrels), US EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventory for the week ending January 9 (in 10,000 barrels), US EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Inventory for the week ending January 9 (in 10,000 barrels)
Pending China December Trade Balance in USD terms (USD billion), China December Trade Balance (CNY billion)
In terms of financial events, Paulson, the 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook, and the EIA will release its Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.
01:00 The EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook Report.
05:00 Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President, delivers a speech.
22:50 Paulson, the 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook.
23:00 Fed Governor Milan speaks in Athens.
To be determined: OPEC is scheduled to release its monthly oil market report (the exact release time is yet to be confirmed, typically published between 18:00 and 21:00 Beijing Time).
In terms of performance, $Wanshun Ruiqiang Group (08427.HK)$ will announce earnings, $Bank of America(BAC.US)$ 、 Citigroup (C.US) 、 RedCloud (RCT.US) 、 American Community Bank (UCB.US) 、 $Wells Fargo & Co(WFC.US)$ will announce earnings before the U.S. market opens, Fuller (FUL.US) Home BancShares (HOMB.US) will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Thursday (January 15th)
Keywords: US weekly initial jobless claims, Federal Reserve Beige Book, Goldman Sachs/Taiwan Semiconductor earnings
In terms of economic data, the Eurozone will release the seasonally adjusted trade balance for November, while the United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10.
15:00 UK GDP month-on-month rate for the three months to November, UK manufacturing output month-on-month rate for November, UK seasonally adjusted goods trade balance (in billion GBP) for November, UK industrial production month-on-month rate for November
15:45 France CPI month-on-month final value for December
17:00 Germany full-year GDP growth rate for 2025
18:00 Eurozone seasonally adjusted trade balance (in billion EUR) for November, Eurozone industrial production month-on-month rate for November
21:30 US initial jobless claims (in ten thousand people) for the week ending January 10, US New York Fed Manufacturing Index for January, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for January, US import price index month-on-month rate for November
23:30 US EIA natural gas inventory (in billion cubic feet) for the week ending January 9
In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.
01:00 Kashkari, Minneapolis Fed President and 2026 FOMC voter, delivers a speech. Bostic, Atlanta Fed President and 2027 FOMC voter, delivers a speech.
03:00 The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book report on economic conditions.
03:10 Williams, New York Fed President and permanent FOMC voter, delivers opening remarks at an event.
17:00 The European Central Bank releases its economic bulletin.
21:35 Raphael Bostic, voting member of the 2027 FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, delivers a speech.
TBD The defense ministers of the United States and Japan hold a summit in Washington.
In terms of performance, Volkswagen Financial Services Holding (00626.HK) will announce earnings, Blackrock (BLK.US) 、 Goldman Sachs (GS.US) 、 $Morgan Stanley(MS.US)$ 、 Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US) will announce earnings before the U.S. market opens, WaFd (WAFD.US) will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Friday (January 16th)
Keywords: US December Industrial Production MoM, State Street Bank earnings
In terms of economic data, the US will announce its December industrial production MoM.
15:00 Germany December CPI MoM Final
22:15 US December Industrial Production MoM
23:00 US January NAHB Housing Market Index
In terms of financial events, Barkin will make public remarks.
01:40 Barkin, the 2027 FOMC voter and Richmond Fed President, will deliver a speech on the economic outlook of Virginia.
In terms of performance, $Indigo Star (08373.HK)$ will announce earnings, M&T Bank Corporation (MTB.US) 、 Regions Financial Corporation (RF.US) 、 State Street Corporation (STT.US) will announce earnings before the U.S. market opens, BOK Financial Corporation (BOKF.US) will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!
Editor/Doris