Next Monday, China's full-year GDP growth rate for 2025 and the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for January will be released. U.S. stocks will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the U.S. Supreme Court may rule on Trump's tariff case on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the U.S. Supreme Court will focus on the Cook dismissal case, a hearing that could be more significant than the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair. On Thursday, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, will be released, with Morgan Stanley warning of a significant rebound in the data.
In terms of events, U.S. President Trump will lead a delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos on Monday and will deliver a speech on "How can we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?" at the forum on Wednesday. On Friday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy. In terms of earnings reports, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and Intel are scheduled to release their results.
Overview of Key Events
"The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge," the November PCE index, will be released on Thursday.
On Thursday, January 22, "the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge," the November PCE index, will be published. After the December CPI data was criticized as potentially distorted, this report becomes crucial in gauging the true trend of U.S. inflation. Morgan Stanley forecasts that core goods PCE will rise by 0.46% month-on-month, significantly higher than the flat performance of core goods in the CPI. This divergence stems from weakness in new and used cars within the CPI, while appliances, software, and electronics—goods with higher weightings in the PCE—show accelerating price increases.
Analysts point out that this divergence poses a challenge for the Fed. The CPI, the most familiar inflation metric to the public, indicates cooling, which may strengthen market expectations for rate cuts. However, the PCE, which the Fed focuses on, could show that inflation is re-accelerating. If Morgan Stanley's prediction is correct, the December core PCE year-on-year rate will rise to 2.90%, far higher than November’s 2.67%, directly impacting market expectations for the Fed’s rate cuts.
The United States imposes tariffs on eight European countries; attention turns to next week’s market performance.
Trump announced on social media on the 17th that he would impose a 10% tariff on U.S.-bound goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1. Trump stated that the tariff rate would increase to 25% starting June 1 until an agreement is reached on the U.S. “full and complete purchase of Greenland.” On the 16th, Trump threatened that he might impose tariffs on countries opposing the U.S. acquisition of Greenland.
James Ragan, co-chief investment officer and head of investment management research at D.A. Davidson, noted: 'The market has largely shown immunity to a host of geopolitical and domestic political issues in the U.S., but that does not mean risks do not exist.' He added: 'Trump could still push through some more aggressive, grandiose policies, and the market will then need to assess whether these policies are significant enough to trigger a substantive reaction.'
The Winter World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will convene this week, with Trump leading a record-sized U.S. delegation to attend.
From January 19 to 23 (Monday to Friday), the 56th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum will take place in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. Themed “The Spirit of Dialogue,” the forum is expected to attract over 60 heads of state and thousands of leaders from various sectors globally. Forum President Borge Brende stated that six out of the seven G7 leaders, including Trump, have confirmed their attendance.
In addition, Zelenskyy, Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, and others will also attend the meeting. It is currently estimated that 64 heads of state or government leaders will participate, setting a new historical record. Brende mentioned that this number may increase further before the official opening of the event.
U.S. President Trump will lead the largest American delegation in history to attend and is expected to deliver a speech on January 21st addressing “how we can cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?” Whether his tariff policies, military intervention in Venezuela, and threats to purchase Greenland will become topics of discussion will be a key highlight. Additionally, any remarks regarding his disputes with Powell are likely to attract significant market attention.
At the same time, the forum will witness a rare high-density appearance of technology leaders,$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA,Microsoft (MSFT.US)Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, Amodei, CEO of Anthropic,$Google-C(GOOG.US)$Demis Hassabis, CEO of DeepMind, as well as key figures from OpenAI, Mistral AI, and other companies will gather. The governance, development, and global impact of artificial intelligence are bound to become core topics.
The U.S. Supreme Court has set Tuesday as the next opinion day for tariffs, potentially ruling on Trump's tariff case.
The U.S. Supreme Court has designated Tuesday, January 20th, as the next date for issuing rulings, with the world awaiting the outcome of the decision on U.S. President Trump’s landmark tariff policy. If a ruling on the tariff case is not announced next week, it could take at least another month. Justices typically enter the courtroom only when delivering opinions on reviewed cases, and Wednesday will be the last court session before the next scheduled sitting, after which the court will recess until February 20th.
Trump stated on Friday that losing the Supreme Court case would be a disgrace for the United States. Investors are awaiting the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on the legality of Trump’s 'global tariff policy,' which may trigger fluctuations in asset prices.
Further reading:The U.S. Supreme Court has not yet announced the ruling on Trump's tariffs, with the next decision scheduled for next Wednesday.
The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Wednesday regarding Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.
On Wednesday, January 21, the US Supreme Court will hold a hearing on the case of Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This ruling will establish a key precedent for whether the president can bypass legal protections to remove Federal Reserve officials 'for cause,' and is considered a bellwether in the battle to defend the Fed’s independence.
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report: “If the court rules against Cook, it will significantly increase the likelihood of Powell being removed due to the Department of Justice investigation. We have always believed that the Cook case has a greater impact on the policy trajectory than the selection of the next Fed chair.”
Trump previously hinted that he might prefer Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council and a leading candidate for the Fed chair position, to remain in his current role. Another contender for the position, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, is considered by some to potentially be less aggressive than Hassett in pushing for interest rate cuts.
Wedbush analysts noted in a report this week: 'The end of Powell's term as chair will become a key turning point in the narrative of the Fed’s independence. Should the market perceive that the Fed’s independence is compromised, it could lead to rising inflation expectations and increase the cost of U.S. government financing.'
Further reading:The Supreme Court to Focus on Cook's Removal Case Next Week: This Hearing Matters More Than Who Chairs the Federal Reserve!
Next week will see a flurry of earnings reports, with Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Intel, and others set to announce their results.
The earnings season is reaching its peak,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$Intel (INTC.US)$、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$、$Procter & Gamble(PG.US)$、Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US)will release their earnings reports in concentration, with the stock market rebound trading near highs. Small-cap stocks are leading the gains, while software stocks are struggling. However, overall, the market demonstrates good breadth in terms of sectors and leading stocks.
Streaming service company$Netflix (NFLX.US)$will release its Q4 earnings report after the US stock market closes on Tuesday. Analysts expect the company to benefit from the final season of the hit series 'Stranger Things' and other popular content. According to a FactSet survey, analysts expect Netflix to report earnings per share of 55 cents, up 28% year-on-year, with revenue of $11.97 billion, an increase of 17%. Healthcare giant$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$is scheduled to release its earnings report before the market opens on Wednesday. Analysts expect its profits to grow by 22% and sales to increase by 7%.
$Intel (INTC.US)$Intel is set to release its earnings after the market closes on Thursday. The Wall Street consensus expects the chipmaker to report earnings per share of 8 cents, a year-on-year decrease of 40%, and revenue of $13.4 billion, a decline of 6%. Against the backdrop of support from the U.S. government and growing attention on its 18A node chip manufacturing process, Intel is attempting to implement a transformation strategy.
The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday.
Monday is Martin Luther King Jr. Day, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for the day. Trading in precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts under CME Group will conclude at 03:30 Beijing Time on January 20, while trading in U.S. bond and equity index futures contracts will end at 02:00 Beijing Time on January 20. ICE Group's raw sugar, cotton, and other agricultural futures will be suspended for the day, as will CBOT's agricultural product trading.
Key economic data such as China's GDP, industrial production, retail sales, and housing prices across 70 cities.
On Monday, January 19, key economic data including China's Q4 GDP, industrial production by enterprises above designated size, total retail sales of consumer goods, housing prices across 70 cities, fixed asset investment, and unemployment rate were released. On the same day, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the operation of the national economy.
Zheshang Securities forecasts that the year-on-year growth rate of Q4 GDP will be 4.6%, with economic activity showing relatively strong industrial production but moderate recovery in consumer demand. CICC also predicts a 4.6% year-on-year growth rate for Q4 GDP and a 5.0% growth rate for the full year.
The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision and economic outlook report.
On Friday, January 23, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. The market widely expects the central bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.75%, keeping it unchanged following a rate hike in December. Although inflation data released before the meeting may indicate easing price pressures, core CPI is still expected to remain high. Considering uncertainties in the domestic political landscape, Governor Kazuo Ueda’s remarks after the meeting are anticipated to remain cautious.
The 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held on Tuesday.
The 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held in Shanghai on January 20. Organized by Alibaba Cloud, this event focuses on cutting-edge cloud-native database technologies, industry practices, and developer ecosystem building. It aims to create a world-leading platform for technical exchange and collaborative development in cloud-native databases.
This year's conference, themed around 'AI-Ready Cloud-Native Databases,' brings together global database experts, corporate CTOs/CIOs, developers, technical decision-makers, and open-source community leaders to discuss key topics such as AI-driven deepening evolution of cloud-native technologies, architecture upgrades oriented toward AI, the integration of data and intelligence (Data+AI), and open-source openness. The event aims to create a high-value platform that integrates technology exchange, ecosystem co-construction, and commercial cooperation.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Further reading:[With Prizes] Prepare for Rigorous Testing! Netflix and Intel to Release Earnings, Weekly Performance Update (January 19 - January 23)
Monday (January 19)
Keywords: China’s Full-Year GDP Growth Rate for 2025, Trump Leading Delegation to Attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, End of Subscription Period for Longqi Technology, U.S. Stock Market Closed
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to China’s full-year GDP growth rate for 2025.
10:00 China’s Full-Year GDP Growth Rate for 2025, China’s Q4 GDP Year-on-Year Growth Rate, China’s Full-Year GDP Total for 2025 (in Trillion Yuan), China’s December Retail Sales Year-on-Year Growth Rate, China’s December Industrial Output Year-on-Year Growth Rate
In terms of financial events, U.S. President Trump will lead a delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos; timing is yet to be determined.
09:30 National Bureau of Statistics releases the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities
10:00 State Council Information Office holds a press conference on the status of national economic operations
Timing to be confirmed: U.S. President Trump to lead a delegation to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos; the 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting will take place from January 19 to 23 with the theme 'The Spirit of Dialogue.'
Earnings-wise,$Telix Pharmaceuticals(TLX.US)$Earnings to be released today.
In terms of new stock offerings, $Longcheer Technology (09611.HK)$The subscription for new shares has concluded.
In terms of market closures, due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, the US-NYSE stock market will be closed for one day; CME Group’s precious metals and US crude oil futures contract trading will end at 03:30 Beijing time on the 20th, while US bond and stock index futures contract trading will conclude at 02:00 Beijing time on the 20th; ICE Group's raw sugar, cotton, and other agricultural product futures will be closed for one day; CBOT agricultural products trading will also be closed for one day.
Tuesday (January 20)
Keywords: China's one-year Loan Prime Rate as of January 20, 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference, Netflix/Interactive Brokers earnings, Longqi Technology announces lottery results
In terms of economic data, China's one-year Loan Prime Rate as of January 20 will be announced.
09:00 China's one-year Loan Prime Rate as of January 20
In terms of financial events, a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products will open, with the timing yet to be determined.
09:30 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference
16:30 Blackrock CEO Fink delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting
A new round of price adjustment window for refined oil products in China is yet to be determined.
Earnings-wise,D.R. Horton (DHI.US)、$Fastenal(FAST.US)$、$3M(MMM.US)$、$U.S. Bancorp(USB.US)$will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$Netflix (NFLX.US)$、Interactive Brokers (IBKR.US)、$United Airlines(UAL.US)$、Cinda Finance (WTFC.US)will release earnings after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stock offerings, $Longcheer Technology (09611.HK)$The lottery results for the new stock issuance have been announced.
Wednesday (January 21st)
Keywords: US December Conference Board Leading Indicators Month-over-Month Rate, Trump's Speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, Johnson & Johnson's Earnings, BitGo Holdings Subscription End
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the total number of US November building permits (in ten thousand units) and the December Conference Board Leading Indicators Month-over-Month Rate.
21:30 US November Total Building Permits (in ten thousand units)
23:00 US December Conference Board Leading Indicators Month-over-Month Rate, US October Construction Spending Month-over-Month Rate, US December Pending Home Sales Index Month-over-Month Rate
In terms of financial events, the IEA will release its monthly oil market report, and Trump will deliver a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on 'How do we cooperate in an increasingly competitive world?'
03:30 NYMEX New York February crude oil futures will be affected by rollover. The final trading session will end at 3:30 AM on January 21st, with electronic trading concluding at 6:00 AM. Please check the exchange’s rollover announcements to manage risks. Additionally, some trading platforms’ US oil contract expiration times are typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX date. Please exercise caution.
15:30 European Central Bank President Lagarde and Blackrock CEO Fink will participate in a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum.
17:00 IEA releases monthly oil market report
21:00 U.S. President Trump delivers a speech at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on 'How do we collaborate in an increasingly competitive world?'
Earnings-wise,$Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US)$、$Ally Financial (ALLY.US)$、TE Connectivity (TEL.US)will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$CACI International (CACI.US)$、Kinder Morgan (KMI.US)will release earnings after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stock offerings, $BitGo Holdings(BTGO.US)$The subscription for new shares has concluded.
Thursday (January 22)
Keywords: U.S. weekly initial jobless claims, November core PCE price index year-over-year, Intel/Procter & Gamble/Intuitive Surgical/GE Aerospace/Freeport-McMoRan earnings, Longcheer Technology goes public today, BitGo Holdings announces lottery results & lists today
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the U.S. weekly initial jobless claims as of January 17 (in ten thousand people) and the U.S. November core PCE price index year-over-year.
05:30 U.S. API crude oil inventory as of January 16 (in ten thousand barrels)
21:30 US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 17 (in ten thousand people), US November Core PCE Price Index Year-over-Year, US November Personal Spending Month-over-Month, Finalized US Q3 Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate, Finalized US Q3 Real Personal Consumption Expenditure Quarterly Growth Rate, Finalized US Q3 Core PCE Price Index Annualized Quarterly Growth Rate, US November Core PCE Price Index Month-over-Month
23:30 US EIA Natural Gas Inventory for the week ending January 16 (in billion cubic feet)
In terms of financial events, the European Central Bank released the minutes from its December monetary policy meeting.
20:30 The European Central Bank released the minutes from its December monetary policy meeting.
23:15 The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting held a thematic seminar on Middle Eastern economies and a discussion session on growth issues. IMF Managing Director Georgieva participated in the discussion.
Earnings-wise,$Procter & Gamble(PG.US)$、$GE Aerospace (GE.US)$、$Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.US)$、$Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US)$、$McCormick & Company (MKC.US)$will release earnings before the US stock market opens,$Intel (INTC.US)$、Intuitive Surgical (ISRG.US)、$Alcoa Corporation (AA.US)$is scheduled to release its earnings after the US stock market closes.
In terms of new stock offerings, $Longcheer Technology (09611.HK)$Listed today,$BitGo Holdings(BTGO.US)$Announced the lottery results and was listed today.
Friday (January 23)
Keywords: US Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventory (in thousand barrels), Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January, Ericsson's earnings, EquipmentShare.com Inc goes public today.
In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to the U.S. EIA crude oil inventories (in million barrels) for the week and the final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for January.
01:00 AM: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories (in million barrels) for the week ending January 16, U.S. EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories (in million barrels) for the week ending January 16, U.S. EIA crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma (in million barrels) for the week ending January 16.
10:45 PM: Initial readings of S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S., initial readings of S&P Global Services PMI for January in the U.S.
11:00 PM: Final reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for January in the U.S., final reading of the one-year inflation expectation rate for January in the U.S.
Regarding financial events, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy; the Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report, with the timing yet to be determined.
14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda holds a press conference on monetary policy
06:00 PM: The World Economic Forum will host a panel discussion on global economic prospects.
To be determined: The Bank of Japan will release its interest rate decision and economic outlook report.
Earnings-wise,$Ericsson (ERIC.US)$、$Schlumberger (SLB.US)$、Comerica Bank (CMA.US)will release earnings before the U.S. stock market opens.
In terms of new stock offerings, EquipmentShare.com Inc (EQPT.US)listed today.
Stay ahead with key financial updates and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!
Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!
Editor/Melody