①Currently, over 70% of household deposits are non-demand deposits, but there is no accurate data on the structure and maturity of these deposits. Most related analyses are deductions based on certain assumptions. ②Banking professionals believe that although some three-year fixed deposits will indeed mature in 2026, 'the maturity of high-interest fixed deposits does not equate to deposit migration.' ③Banks have various means to address the repricing of household deposits and would actually welcome a decline in the proportion of fixed-term deposits.
Report from Cailian Press on January 19 (reporter Peng Keyuan): The market's discussion about the '2026 time deposit maturity wave' has intensified in recent days. Multiple brokerage firms have issued research reports stating that 2026 will witness a massive amount of high-interest time deposits maturing, with estimates ranging from 30 trillion to 50 trillion yuan. Some voices even claim it could reach up to 70 trillion yuan.
In fact, referring to the ongoing narrative logic of 'deposit migration' that gained popularity last year, this 'high-interest time deposit maturity wave' is essentially consistent. It assumes that, under the backdrop of continuously declining deposit interest rates, a large amount of funds will leave banks and migrate towards the stock market.
So, does this analysis make sense? How do banks feel about the rumored 'deposit maturity wave'? Is there accurate data to support these claims? To address these questions, reporters from Cailian Press recently conducted interviews with multiple parties.
Cailian Press reporters learned that different banks currently face varying scales and proportions of time deposit maturities. From a market-wide perspective, there are no precise data available regarding the duration and structure of time deposits, and related analyses are mostly conclusions drawn under certain assumptions.
Moreover, most interviewed banks are not concerned about the rumored 'time deposit maturity wave.' On one hand, banks have various measures to deal with similar deposit repricing; on the other hand, under the current trend of narrowing interest spreads, the concentrated maturity of fixed deposit products is actually beneficial for banks as it will directly improve their net interest margins.
First question: What exactly is the scale of maturing time deposits? Currently, there is no accurate data.
As the stock market continued to rise at the start of the year, several brokerage firms, including CICC, successively issued research reports pointing directly to the '2026 fixed deposit maturity wave.' Overall, while there is no consensus among institutions regarding the exact amount of maturing deposits, estimates mostly range between RMB 32 trillion and RMB 50 trillion. Additionally, the majority of these fixed deposit products have a three-year maturity period.
Why do many brokerages believe that 2026 will see a large-scale wave of time deposit maturities? In response, a macroeconomic analyst told our reporter that although each institution cannot provide '100% accurate' reasons, the core logic lies in the 'critical juncture' of three years ago (2023). At that time, the pandemic officially came to a full end, and residents began to significantly increase precautionary savings. The most mainstream product offered by commercial banks and widely accepted by consumers was the three-year high-interest time deposit.
“There was indeed a period of high growth in household deposits in 2023, and the situation at my bank was similar. One factor was the redemption wave of wealth management products at the end of 2022, which led to a large amount of wealth management funds flowing back into bank deposits.” A person from a listed bank told the reporter, “However, it’s impossible to precisely determine how many people purchased three-year fixed deposits, how many chose five-year or two-year fixed deposits,” as the bank’s high-interest five-year fixed deposit had not yet been scaled down significantly at that time.
Cailian Press reporters found that there is currently no official release of the total amount of fixed deposits maturing in 2026, but the total amount of time deposits in the banking system by the end of 2025 is clear. The latest 'Financial Institutions Domestic and Foreign Currency Credit and Income Statement,' published by the central bank, shows that as of the fourth quarter of last year, the total amount of household deposits in China was approximately 167 trillion RMB, with time and other deposits reaching 122.4 trillion RMB, accounting for as much as 73%.
This indicates that in the current banking system, over 70% of household deposits are non-current deposits. However, there is no accurate data regarding further deposit structures and maturities. This also implies that most existing market analyses on this topic are based on certain assumptions.
So, is there any data available for a single bank? A representative from a joint-stock bank told Caixin reporters that fixed-term deposits maturing in 2025 account for about 30% of the bank's total deposits, which is not considered high. “There will be even more high-interest fixed-term deposits maturing in 2026.”
The second question: Are banks concerned about large-scale withdrawals of maturing fixed deposits? Repricing does not equate to deposit migration.
In the view of many banking professionals, although some three-year fixed deposits will mature in 2026, this does not mean that these funds will leave the banking system en masse. “The maturity of high-interest fixed deposits does not equate to deposit migration.”
A representative from a listed bank told Caixin reporters that customers who choose three-year or five-year fixed deposit products inherently have very low risk appetites and are unlikely to change suddenly. Therefore, most of these funds will still opt to remain in fixed deposits, at most shifting from state-owned major banks with lower interest rates to joint-stock banks or city commercial banks with relatively higher interest rates. “Based on past experience, the retention rate of term deposit customers is roughly around 80-90%. Of course, with significant interest rate declines in the past two years, new changes this year cannot be ruled out.”
Other banking professionals stated that compared to other investment products, the 'risk-free' feature of bank fixed deposits remains prominent and is still the preferred choice for many middle-aged and elderly clients. Additionally, although the stock market has performed well since last year, in reality, some customers with higher risk appetites had already entered the equity market through means such as transferring large-denomination certificates of deposit or pledging deposits.
During interviews, a representative from a city commercial bank told Caixin reporters that considering the ongoing trend of tightening net interest margins without fundamental change, the bank is not particularly concerned whether fixed deposit customers, especially those small 'retail' depositors, choose to 'migrate'. “Currently, there are no special requirements at the head office level for deposit targets.”
Several banking professionals also pointed out that since the beginning of this year, promoting the conversion of term deposits into demand deposits has remained one of the main objectives of banks. “We also hope to have fewer fixed deposit customers.”
However, according to the latest data from the central bank, the banking industry’s goal of converting term deposits into demand deposits has not been achieved. According to the 'Financial Institutions Domestic and Foreign Currency Credit Revenue and Expenditure Table,' in the past two years, the proportion of household term deposits in the banking system has continued to rise, increasing from over 60% to 70%.
The third question: Is the maturity of fixed deposits a positive or negative factor for banks? Banks have multiple measures to respond.
In interviews, reporters from Cailian Press learned that most banks are not concerned about the rumored "wave of maturing time deposits." Currently, large banks generally adopt a "laissez-faire" attitude toward high-interest fixed deposit customers. From the perspective of banks, the concentrated maturity of fixed deposit products is actually beneficial as it can further reduce the cost of high-interest liabilities and improve net interest margins.
On January 15, Deputy Governor Zou Lan of the People's Bank of China stated at a press conference held by the State Council Information Office that in 2026, there will be a significant repricing of long-term deposits such as three-year and five-year maturities. On the same day, the People's Bank of China reduced various relending rates, which will help lower banks' interest payment costs, stabilize net interest margins, and create room for rate cuts.
However, some banks will still consider their own situation and retain customers through other means while attempting to generate more revenue. For instance, at the beginning of the year, multiple banks have successively published issuance announcements for large-denomination certificates of deposit (CDs) for 2026 on their official websites, with interest rates still holding an advantage compared to term deposits. Some banks also proactively market newly issued large-denomination CDs to clients, encouraging maturing funds to remain in their accounts or using offline promotions to attract fixed deposit clients from other banks.
January marks the issuance period for a new round of large-denomination CDs for many banks, providing them with fresh quotas. However, many of these CDs are issued on a targeted basis or allocated selectively.” A representative from a listed bank told Cailian Press that the sale of large-denomination CDs is currently “highly popular.”
Moreover, compared to retail investors, banks place greater emphasis on clients or enterprises with deposits exceeding tens of millions. A banking insider noted that for large deposit clients, banks typically assign dedicated personnel to maintain relationships and engage in proactive communication after their fixed deposits mature. Since last year, a notable trend has been that many companies, including listed firms, have voluntarily converted portions of their deposits into fixed terms. Corporate deposits have been growing steadily, and structured products have gained popularity, offsetting some of the loss of individual fixed deposit clients.
Amid the surging price of gold, many banks have identified opportunities to capitalize on this trend, particularly in the fields of accumulated gold and precious metal investments. Cailian Press learned that despite a new wave of adjustments to minimum purchase thresholds for accumulated gold products initiated at the start of the year—such as Ningbo Bank and ICBC raising their thresholds to 1,200 yuan and 1,100 yuan respectively—the number of clients purchasing accumulated gold continues to rise. Many banks are consciously stepping up marketing efforts to attract more high-net-worth clients.
For example, China Merchants Bank recently launched a targeted promotional campaign for its “CMB Gold” product via its mobile app. The bank announced that salary account clients with assets meeting the threshold of 200,000 yuan, as well as invited clients, would enjoy exclusive discounts of up to 30 yuan per gram when purchasing precious metals through the bank.
Editor/Jayden