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Weekly Outlook | Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI "Double Whammy"! Unusually Timed Releases for Employment and Inflation Data; AI and Robotics Race Intensifies as New Large Models Launch Before and After the Lunar New Year; Earnings Reports from SMIC, Coinbase, a

Futu News ·  Feb 8 15:58

Overview of Key Events

  • The battle between AI and robotics intensifies! Qwen, DouBao, YuanBao, and WenXin have successively launched initiatives.

In February, a series of critical advancements in the global AI sector will be unveiled. In China, the period around the Spring Festival has become a core window for promoting AI applications. From February 1 to February 17, $Tencent (00700.HK)$ 'YuanBao' initiated an activity distributing 1 billion yuan in cash. $Baidu Group-SW (09888.HK)$ Starting from January 26 and continuing until March 12, WenXin distributed 500 million yuan in cash red packets. On February 6, Alibaba-W (09988.HK) the Qwen APP announced a 3-billion-yuan investment to kick off its Spring Festival campaign, and on February 7 extended the validity of free cards until February 28, fully integrating into ecosystem services such as Hema and Taobao Flash Purchase.

Additionally, Unitree Technology announced on January 26 that it has become the '2026 CCTV Spring Festival Gala Robot Partner.' This will mark the third appearance of Unitree robots on the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

At the same time, multiple Chinese companies plan to release new-generation models: DeepSeek is expected to launch the V4 model with robust programming capabilities in February; ByteDance and Alibaba also plan to respectively release DouBao 2.0 and Qwen 3.5 models before and after the Spring Festival.

Overseas, February also sees multiple product updates and commercialization initiatives. Elon Musk's xAI plans to make significant upgrades to its large language model Grok in February. OpenAI is reportedly launching chatbot advertising services this month. Apple plans to release a more personalized version of Siri powered by Google Gemini.

  • US non-farm payroll and inflation data are set to be released in an unusual cluster.

Due to the recent brief shutdown of the US government, the non-farm payroll data will be delayed until February 11. Next week, there will be an unusual phenomenon where both the US non-farm employment report and CPI are released in quick succession. As long as the data results exceed investors' concerns, they may help restore market confidence amidst the recent wave of panic selling.

The market currently expects January's non-farm payroll growth to range between 60,000 and 80,000. A figure below this range would trigger discussions about interest rate cuts. The CPI data requires attention to seasonal price pressures at the beginning of the year. A combination of 'weak employment + strong inflation' would represent the greatest market risk.

Considering that Kevin Warsh has been nominated as the Federal Reserve Chair candidate for the Trump administration, any potential shifts in the Fed’s assessment of its dual mandate are now particularly crucial.

  • China’s financial and inflation data

China will release its January financial and inflation data. Tongdao Securities expects the January CPI to decline by 0.4% year-on-year and the PPI to decrease by 1.5%; Zheshang Securities forecasts a 0.6% year-on-year increase in CPI and a 1.8% year-on-year decline in PPI.

In terms of financial data, the quality of the 'strong start' has drawn attention. Caitong Securities predicts that new social financing in January will reach 7.38 trillion yuan, while Zheshang Securities offers a more conservative forecast, estimating new social financing at 6.9 trillion yuan.

  • Verbal sparring between the US and Iran; American aircraft carriers are at the ready.

On February 6 local time, Trump stated that the US and Iran had held “very good talks,” and that Iran was “very eager” to reach an agreement. He mentioned that the US would negotiate again with Iran next week. He reiterated that Iran must not possess nuclear weapons. Trump also authorized his administration to impose tariff measures on countries trading with Iran but did not immediately impose any new tariffs.

However, the market anticipates that achieving a breakthrough in negotiations will be challenging due to fundamental differences in positions: the US demands a comprehensive agreement covering nuclear, missile, and regional activities, while Iran insists that negotiations focus solely on nuclear issues, with lifting sanctions as its core demand.

The date for the next round of nuclear talks has not yet been confirmed by both parties. The oil market is closely monitoring tensions in the Middle East for any signs of potential disruptions to crude oil supplies.

  • The earnings season for Hong Kong and US stocks continues! Companies such as SMIC, Coinbase, and CoreWeave are set to release their financial results sequentially.

In the coming week, traditional industry stocks in the US market, such as $McDonald's (MCD.US)$$Coca-Cola (KO.US)$T-Mobile US(TMUS.US)$BP PLC (BP.US)$ will announce their earnings. Pharmaceutical giant $AstraZeneca (AZN.US)$Moderna (MRNA.US) will also release its financial report.

Following last week’s sharp market decline, investors will focus on the AI applications and software sector, which has experienced significant volatility recently, as well as key technology companies. Investors may pay attention to the earnings of companies such as $Applovin(APP.US)$ and $Unity Software(U.US)$ .

Additionally, automotive stocks $Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$Ford Motor (F.US) Cryptocurrency-related stocks $Coinbase(COIN.US)$$Robinhood(HOOD.US)$ will release their earnings reports next week.

The fourth-quarter earnings season remains robust. According to John Butters, as of Thursday, the S&P 500 companies reported a 13% growth in Q4 earnings, surpassing the data from the previous weekend. Chris Hyzy, Chief Investment Officer of Bank of America Merrill Lynch Private Banking, stated: 'Under no circumstances do we believe that opportunities in the U.S. market have come to an end.'

In the Hong Kong stock market, the two leading domestic wafer foundries SMIC (00981.HK)Huahong Semiconductor (01347.HK), and gaming giant $NetEase-S(09999.HK)$ will disclose their financial results next week.

  • Hong Kong IPOs continue to gain momentum, with Montage Technology officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, followed closely by AiXin YuanZhi and Lead Intelligent Equipment.

Montage Technology (06809.HK)Futu’s dark pool trading closed 39.77% higher on Friday at HKD 149.4 per share, with each lot consisting of 100 shares. Excluding handling fees, investors gained HKD 4,251 per lot. The company is scheduled for its official listing on February 9th. This offering received strong support from cornerstone investors, including Alibaba and JPMorgan, amounting to USD 450 million. Its projected net profit growth of up to 66% in 2025 underscores the market’s high recognition of its growth potential in AI and data center chips. Next week, chipmaker $Axera Intelligence (00600.HK)$ Semiconductor and 'smart equipment firm' Lead Intelligent Equipment (300450.SZ) and $乐欣户外(02720.HK)$ will also be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

  • Hang Seng Index Company to announce Q4 results

Hang Seng Indexes Company will announce the fourth-quarter review results on February 13 (Friday).

Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead

Monday (February 9)

Keywords: Montage Technology's IPO, Aixing Yuanzhi, Lexin Outdoor Grey Market Trading

In terms of economic data, attention can be paid to Japan's December trade balance, and at midnight, the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York's one-year inflation expectation for January can be monitored.

In terms of performance, $Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (CLF.US)$$monday.com (MNDY.US)$ is set to release earnings before the US stock market opens. Additionally, $ON Semiconductor (ON.US)$ and $Amkor Technology (AMKR.US)$ Will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. Hong Kong stocks $Hong Kong Telecommunications-SS (06823.HK)$ Will release its report card on the same day.

In terms of new stocks, Montage Technology (06809.HK) Will officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, $Axera Intelligence (00600.HK)$$乐欣户外(02720.HK)$ Will initiate over-the-counter trading after the Hong Kong stock market closes.

Tuesday (February 10th)

Keywords: SMIC, Robinhood earnings,先导智能 over-the-counter trading, Waller's speech on digital assets

In terms of economic data, at 0:00 Beijing time, the US will announce the New York Fed's 1-year inflation expectation for January, and at 21:30, the US December retail sales month-over-month rate will be released.

In terms of performance, $Coca-Cola (KO.US)$$Oscar Health(OSCR.US)$$CVS Health(CVS.US)$ Will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, while Ford Motor (F.US)$Robinhood(HOOD.US)$$Astera Labs(ALAB.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. Hong Kong stocks SMIC (00981.HK)$PCCW Limited (00008.HK)$ will release its results.

In terms of economic events, at 2:30 AM, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech on digital assets; at 4:15 AM, Raphael Bostic, a voting member of the 2027 FOMC and President of the Atlanta Federal Reserve, will speak on monetary policy and economic outlook.

Regarding new stock listings, $Axera Intelligence (00600.HK)$$乐欣户外(02720.HK)$ will officially go public, Lead Intelligent Equipment (300450.SZ) will commence grey market trading after the Hong Kong stock market closes.

Wednesday (February 11)

Keywords: US Non-Farm Payroll Data, China's CPI and PPI, NetEase Earnings, Lead Intelligent Equipment IPO

In terms of economic data, China will release January's CPI and PPI figures at 9:30 AM. Additionally, the US will announce January's unemployment rate and non-farm payroll data at 9:30 PM.

In terms of financial events, at 1 a.m., 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hameck will deliver a speech on 'Banking and Economic Outlook'; at 2 a.m., 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak.

In terms of performance, $Unity Software(U.US)$$Vertiv Holdings(VRT.US)$$Shopify(SHOP.US)$ is expected to announce earnings before the US stock market opens. In addition, $Applovin(APP.US)$Cisco (CSCO.US)$QuantumScape(QS.US)$$McDonald's(MCD.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes. Hong Kong-listed $NetEase-S(09999.HK)$ will release its earnings report on the same day.

In terms of new stocks, Lead Intelligent Equipment (300450.SZ)will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Thursday (February 12th)

Keywords: US Initial Jobless Claims

In terms of economic data, the US will announce the weekly initial jobless claims at 21:30.

In terms of financial events, the Bank of Canada will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.

In terms of performance, $NEBIUS(NBIS.US)$ is scheduled to release its earnings before the US stock market opens. Additionally, $Coinbase(COIN.US)$$Rivian Automotive(RIVN.US)$$Applied Materials (AMAT.US)$$Roku Inc(ROKU.US)$ will announce its earnings after the US stock market closes. In the Hong Kong stock market, $Lenovo Group (00992.HK)$ andHuahong Semiconductor (01347.HK) will publish its financial results.

Friday (February 13)

Keywords: US January CPI

In terms of economic data, the US will release its January CPI figures at 21:30 Beijing time.

Regarding financial events, at 8:00 AM, Lorie Logan, a 2026 FOMC voter and President of the Dallas Federal Reserve, will deliver a welcome speech at an event, with Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman attending as a guest.

In terms of performance, Moderna (MRNA.US) will release earnings before the US stock market opens.

webpStay ahead with key financial updates and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!

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Wishing all fellow investors a successful new week ahead!

Editor/Rocky

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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