Source: China Securities Journal
Author: Xu Ying
The annual large-scale Spring Festival 'Field Survey' by analysts has been released!
During the Year of the Horse Spring Festival, as the most astute researchers in the capital market, securities analysts stepped out of their traditional research report frameworks. Taking advantage of the Spring Festival travel and leisure opportunities, they delved into urban and rural business districts and frontline industries to capture the most dynamic operational signals of China's economy.
Looking back, the Spring Festival observations by analysts often contain subtle hints of the year’s investment themes, serving as an important reference for interpreting economic trends. Overall, during the 2026 Year of the Horse Spring Festival, analysts adopted a more 'relaxed' pace — with significantly fewer conference calls on the first day of the lunar new year, replaced instead by more life-oriented observations and deeper cross-sector investigations.
Among them, Shenwan Hongyuan Research Institute continued its tradition, successively releasing 20 Spring Festival observation reports covering multiple dimensions such as consumption, industry, and regional development. Meanwhile, Huachuang Securities analysts released their findings from field research conducted in Indonesia during the Spring Festival.
Consumption: Price Increases Alongside Volume Growth; Service-Oriented Consumption Takes Center Stage
Every year, the analysts’ hometown visits inevitably focus on the consumption sector. Last year, many analysts noted the popularity of new forms of consumption, such as bulk snack stores and bubble tea shops in county towns, alongside 'self-indulgent consumption' like trendy toys and gold jewelry. These new consumption patterns also became the main theme of the market for some time last year.
From this year’s observations by analysts, service-oriented consumption has taken the absolute center stage.
For instance, Jia Dongxu, an analyst from the Shenwan Hongyuan Macro Team, stayed in Shanghai for the Spring Festival this year. He observed that there was strong demand for services during the holiday season. The logistics industry operated without interruption, ensuring cross-regional familial connections. Courier prices dynamically adjusted based on supply and demand, while frontline workers received triple or double wage subsidies. This created a virtuous cycle of 'increased demand—rising prices—higher income—enhanced consumption.' Offline commercial zones reinforced experiential attributes through activities like New Year lantern shows and lion dances, drawing large crowds to landmarks such as Hongkou District’s Jin Chao 8 Lane and Ruihong Xintiandi.
"Consumption is undergoing profound structural changes — shifting from traditional goods consumption to service consumption in tourism, leisure, and entertainment. Service consumption holds significant potential for the future," wrote Jia Dongxu.
Li Xinyue, another member of the Shenwan Hongyuan Macro Team, made similar observations upon returning to her hometown, Funing County, Jiangsu Province. She noted that service consumption in Funing exhibited characteristics of 'price increases alongside volume growth.' For instance, small KTV rooms were priced at nearly 800 yuan for two hours after discounts, cinema tickets costing 60-80 yuan were still sold out for every screening, per capita spending at hot pot restaurants rose from 50 yuan to 80 yuan, and new entertainment options like go-karting and escape rooms gradually entered the county-level markets. She concluded that the Funing consumption market might be entering a phase of structural upgrading, transitioning from predominantly goods-based consumption to a balance between goods and service consumption.
Zhu Benlun, an analyst from the Shenwan Hongyuan textile and apparel research team, observed the rise of a sports consumption boom in Suzhou. New landmarks such as the Taihu Lake Cycling Sports Park and the Taicang Alps Snow World are driving the consumption of professional equipment. Functional yet fashionable clothing like cycling suits and ski suits are gaining popularity, while the spread of emerging sports like pickleball and cricket is spurring growth in niche apparel categories.
Huang Junru from the Shenwan Hongyuan Internet Media team also noted that AI is increasingly impacting the lives of residents in third- and fourth-tier cities. Intensive advertising for AI applications like Qwen and DouBao can be seen in elevator ads in Guigang, and AI assistants are gradually becoming a standard feature on smartphones.
Industry: The Rise of New Productive Forces, Traditional Industries Rejuvenated with New Opportunities
The development of local industries is also an important perspective in analysts' observations during the Spring Festival. In the eyes of analysts, new productive forces are continuously emerging across the country, while traditional industries are being upgraded to create new opportunities.
For instance, an analyst from the Shenwan Hongyuan energy and materials team observed that Dalian Port in Liaoning exceeded 5.4 million TEUs in container throughput in 2025, ranking fourth globally. Leveraging the port's logistics advantages, Dalian has fostered a traditional industrial cluster centered on petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing. The analyst also observed that the petrochemical industry underwent transformations such as shifting from large-scale oil refining to smaller-scale chemical production and from raw materials to refined products. The Songmu Island Chemical Industrial Park has attracted numerous specialized and innovative enterprises. Furthermore, the comprehensive transformation system of 'basic research - engineering - industrialization' developed by the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics provides core support for Dalian’s industrial upgrading.
Liu Jianwei from the Shenwan Hongyuan machinery team wrote that significant progress has been made in industrial transformation in Feicheng, Shandong. The grid connection of the 300MW advanced compressed air energy storage power station by Zhongchu Guoneng, along with a total investment of 34 billion yuan in the new energy storage industry chain, will establish the largest salt cavern energy storage demonstration base in the country. Additionally, the official delivery of Zero One Four's world-first Prussian blue-based sodium-ion battery is promoting the clustering of industries in new competitive fields.
The Shenwan Hongyuan electronics research team believes that Suzhou, relying on projects such as the Tongfu ChaoWei high-end advanced packaging and testing base and the Suzhou North Station integrated transportation hub, is simultaneously enhancing its industrial capabilities and urban operational efficiency. Meanwhile, the home appliance trade-in policy is boosting the consumption of smart products, with first-tier energy-efficient home appliances and smart glasses enjoying a 15% subsidy, guiding demand toward intelligence and high energy efficiency upgrades.
The Shenwan Hongyuan chemical research team observed that Pingdu, Shandong, has achieved cross-sector industrial upgrades. Annual kimchi exports exceed 200,000 tons, accounting for over 60% of South Korea’s import market. The eyelash industry generates an annual output value of 10 billion yuan, with production accounting for 70% of the global share. Precision production has been achieved through 3D printing and automated equipment, and the Xinhe Chemical Industrial Park has formed three 'billion-yuan-level' industrial clusters.
Broad Opportunities for Overseas Expansion
Some analysts also released overseas research observations during the Spring Festival. In recent years, overseas expansion has become a crucial source of growth for Chinese enterprises seeking increments, and Chinese brands continue to exert significant influence on the global stage.
For example, Liu Yi, an analyst at Huachuang Securities, released a research report on Indonesia during the Spring Festival. Liu Yi observed that Indonesia, as a core destination for Chinese enterprises entering Southeast Asia, is rich in nickel resources but lags behind Vietnam and Thailand in terms of supply chain support. Manufacturing companies can leverage low-cost and low-tariff advantages to establish their presence. For consumer goods exports, localization is crucial; Mengniu Aixue achieved market leadership within five years by pricing products below one yuan, while Mixue Bingcheng captured the ready-to-drink tea market in Southeast Asia through an affordable business model. However, trendy toys and sportswear face challenges in gaining widespread popularity due to economic disparities and cultural differences.
Wang Maoyu, a senior macroeconomic analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, observed a strong Lunar New Year atmosphere in Sydney but noted significant price increases. Based on his personal observations, prices for both dining and daily shopping have risen noticeably. Additionally, housing prices in Sydney have surged significantly over the past few years, making housing affordability a critical societal issue.
Editor/Rocky