Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the China Purchasing Managers' Index for February 2026.
On March 4, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted the February 2026 China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
The full text is as follows:
Manufacturing PMI Declined in February, While Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Slightly Rebounded
Interpretation of the February 2026 China Purchasing Managers' Index by Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics
On March 4, 2026, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, provided an interpretation of the data.
In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; and the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
I. Manufacturing PMI Declined
In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, reflecting a decline in the level of economic activity compared to the previous month. Historically, PMI readings in months with the Spring Festival tend to show some fluctuations. This year, the Spring Festival holiday was extended and fell entirely in the second half of February, impacting enterprises' production and operations. Overall market activity in the manufacturing sector declined.
(1) Both supply and demand slowed down. The production index and new orders index were 49.6% and 48.6%, respectively, representing decreases of 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Manufacturing production and market demand both retreated. By industry, the production index and new orders index for agricultural and sideline food processing, as well as computer, communication, and electronic equipment industries, remained above the threshold, indicating continued expansion in production and demand. Meanwhile, indices for the textile, clothing, and automobile industries continued to remain below the threshold, showing weaker market activity.
(2) Large enterprises’ PMI continued to expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating ongoing expansion in production and operations. Medium and small enterprises were more significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday. Their PMIs this month were 47.5% and 44.8%, respectively, decreasing by 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, resulting in a decline in economic activity levels.
(3) Growth momentum in high-tech manufacturing continued to be evident. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5%, remaining in the expansionary range and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level. Related industries maintained positive development trends. The PMI for consumer goods industries was 48.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in economic activity levels. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.8% and 47.8%, respectively, decreasing by 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing a slight decline in economic activity levels.
(4) Business expectations have improved. The business activity expectation index stood at 53.2%, up by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises have strengthened their confidence in market development after the Spring Festival. By industry, the business activity expectation indices for general equipment, railway, shipping, and aerospace equipment were all above the relatively high prosperity level of 56.0%, with relevant companies expressing greater optimism about recent industry trends.
II. Slight rebound in the non-manufacturing business activity index
In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, showing some improvement in the overall prosperity level of the non-manufacturing sector.
(1) Recovery in the service sector's prosperity level. The service business activity index was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. By industry, sectors related to consumer spending during the Spring Festival holiday—such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment—saw significant growth in total business volume, with their business activity indices all exceeding the high prosperity threshold of 60.0%. Meanwhile, industries such as retail and air transportation saw their indices rise above 52.0%. However, sectors like capital markets services and real estate remained subdued, with low market activity levels. In terms of market expectations, the service business activity expectation index was 55.8%, remaining in a relatively high prosperity range, indicating that service enterprises remain optimistic about near-term market development.
(2) Decline in construction sector prosperity. Due to factors such as the concentration of workers returning home during the Spring Festival break and the suspension of some construction projects, the construction business activity index fell to 48.2%, down by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, continuing its decline in prosperity levels. However, in terms of market expectations, the construction business activity expectation index rose to 50.9%, up by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, moving back above the critical threshold, indicating a recovery in construction enterprises’ confidence regarding future industry developments.
III. Decline in the composite PMI output index
In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down by 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in overall enterprise production and operational activities compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.
This article is selected from the 'National Bureau of Statistics official website'; edited by Huang Xiaodong from Zhitong Finance.
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