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Weekly Outlook | Iran Situation Reaches Critical Juncture! US CPI and PCE Reports Released in Succession; Nio, Li Auto, and Oracle to Announce Earnings; Start of Daylight Saving Time in North America Brings Forward US Stock Trading Hours

Futu News ·  Mar 8 16:59

Overview of Key Events

  • Iran's situation reaches a critical juncture! Will geopolitical risks once again disrupt global markets?

The Middle East is facing a pivotal moment. According to reports from the Xinhua News Agency, Iran's Assembly of Experts has made the final decision regarding the selection of a new Supreme Leader. The report cited Ayatollah Mirbagheri as saying that members of the Assembly of Experts have made significant efforts to determine the Supreme Leader, and a final decision representing the majority opinion has been reached. The report did not disclose the name of the new Supreme Leader (the Assembly of Experts is the highest authority responsible for electing, overseeing, and impeaching Iran’s Supreme Leader).

Following the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, global markets have focused their attention on the region. This conflict has become a key variable in financial markets, with surging oil prices triggering significant volatility across various asset classes and prompting investors to significantly lower expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

  • A flurry of inflation data releases! How will markets interpret economic recovery and policy paths?

On March 11, the U.S. February Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Market consensus expects the month-on-month increase in core CPI to slow from 0.3% to 0.2%, remaining flat year-on-year at 2.5%. Bloomberg Economics believes that declines in used car and rental prices are the main factors behind the month-on-month slowdown.

The January core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, often referred to as the 'Fed's favorite inflation gauge,' will be released on March 13. The market expects a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and an annual rise to 3.1%. Seasonal factors such as corporate price adjustments at the beginning of the year may lead to a higher-than-expected January PCE reading.

In addition, the U.S. January Personal Consumption Expenditures and Personal Income Report has been rescheduled for release on March 13; other data including Q4 GDP and January Durable Goods Orders will also be published successively.

  • China’s CPI, PPI, import/export, and financial data are set to be released, collectively verifying the strength of the domestic economy’s recovery at the start of the year.

China will also release key economic data in quick succession. On March 9, China’s February CPI and PPI data will be published first. Huachuang Securities forecasts that, influenced by the Lunar New Year shift and rising oil prices, February’s CPI year-on-year growth may rise to around 0.9%, while the year-on-year decline in PPI may narrow to approximately -1.2%.

The following day, the General Administration of Customs will publish January-February import and export data, with expectations of a 7% year-on-year increase in exports and a 9% rise in imports. Additionally, February’s financial data will also be announced next week. These figures will collectively validate the quality of the domestic economic recovery at the start of the year.

  • China's Two Sessions continue, with sessions concluding on March 11 and 12 respectively.

On the morning of March 9, a centralized interview event called 'Delegates Channel' will be held before the second plenary session.

On the morning of March 11, the closing ceremony of the Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will take place. On the afternoon of March 12, the closing ceremony of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will occur.

  • Apple’s iPhone 17e and new iPad Air go on sale.

$Apple(AAPL.US)$ Apple recently launched the iPhone 17e and the new iPad Air, maintaining the same pricing as their predecessors. The iPhone 17e is equipped with the A19 chip and C1X modem, doubling storage to 256GB but retaining features such as a single camera and 60Hz screen. The iPad Air has been upgraded with the M4 chip, delivering a 30% performance improvement. Both products will go on sale on March 11. This fall, Apple is also set to release the iPhone 18 series and its first foldable iPhone, which is considered the key hardware strategy for the year.

  • Hong Kong plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March.

Hong Kong plans to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March, though the exact timing has not yet been specified. On February 11, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, John Lee Ka-chiu, attending the blockchain industry conference “Consensus Hong Kong Summit 2026,” stated that the Hong Kong Monetary Authority is actively processing license applications and expects the first batch of stablecoin issuer licenses to be issued in March.

  • Alibaba Cloud Bailian voice recognition model SenseVoice-v1 discontinued.

$Alibaba(BABA.US)$ Alibaba-W (09988.HK) Alibaba Cloud's large-scale model service platform Bailian announced that due to product strategy adjustments, Alibaba Cloud Bailian’s voice recognition model SenseVoice-v1 will be discontinued on March 9, 2026. At the same time, users are advised to upgrade to several new models such as Fun-ASR, Fun-ASR-MTL, and Qwen3-ASR-Flash as replacement options.

  • Hangzhou Global Artificial Intelligence Conference (GAIC), Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference.

The Global Artificial Intelligence Conference (GAIC) in Hangzhou will be held at the Hangzhou International Expo Center in Zhejiang from March 12 to 14. Leading global AI companies such as Huawei, Alibaba Cloud, DeepSeek, and Yushu Technology$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$SenseTime-WR (80020.HK) are participating in the exhibition.

The Shanghai Global Investment Promotion Conference will be held at the Oriental Hub International Business Cooperation Zone on March 14.

  • The North American region will begin daylight saving time on Sunday, March 8. Investors are advised to take note.

The United States will begin daylight saving time on Sunday, March 8. Trading hours for U.S. stocks and the release times for economic data will be one hour earlier than during standard time. Investors are advised to take note. The adjusted trading hours (Beijing Time) are as follows:

Pre-market trading: 16:00-21:30;

Regular trading: 21:30-04:00;

After-hours trading: 04:00-08:00;

Overnight trading: 08:00-16:00.

Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead

Monday (March 9)

Keywords: CATL earnings report, China February CPI/PPI, Japan January labor cash income year-over-year

On the economic data front, China will release February CPI year-over-year and February PPI year-over-year at 09:30; Japan will announce January labor cash income year-over-year at 07:30; additionally, China will disclose February M2 money supply year-over-year, January-February aggregate social financing increments, and January-February new RMB loans.

In terms of financial events, continue monitoring developments in the Middle East situation; Hong Kong plans to issue its first batch of stablecoin licenses in March;

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks$Hutchison Telecommunications Hong Kong (00215.HK)$$宁德时代(03750.HK)$ Reports earnings; pre-market for U.S. stocks, $Nayax (NYAX.US)$$SharpLink (SBET.US)$$ZIM Integrated Shipping (ZIM.US)$ Releases earnings report; after-hours for U.S. stocks, Casey's General Stores (CASY.US)Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.US)Released financial reports.

Tuesday (March 10)

Keywords: Nio earnings, Oracle earnings, China January-February import/export year-over-year, South Korea Q4 GDP, Japan Q4 real GDP, U.S. robotics manufacturing event

In terms of economic data, South Korea will announce the preliminary Q4 GDP year-over-year at 07:00; Japan will release the final Q4 real GDP quarter-over-quarter at 07:50; China will announce its January-February import year-over-year and January-February export year-over-year figures.

Regarding financial events, the U.S. Department of Commerce will host a U.S. robotics manufacturing event.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks$HaiFeng International (01308.HK)$$Nio(NIO.US)$ $Nio-SW (09866.HK)$ Reports earnings; pre-market for U.S. stocks, $Kohl's Corporation (KSS.US)$$Uranium Energy(UEC.US)$$Volkswagen (ADR) (VWAGY.US)$ Release earnings report; post-market for U.S. stocks,$AeroVironment(AVAV.US)$IDT.US$Oracle(ORCL.US)$Release earnings report;

Wednesday (March 11)

Keywords: US February CPI, Apple new product launch, conclusion of the CPPCC National Committee session

In terms of economic data, the US will release its February CPI year-over-year at 20:30, with a forecast of 2.5% compared to the previous value of 2.4%.

Regarding financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech; the fourth session of the 14th CPPCC National Committee will conclude in the morning; Apple's iPhone 17e and the new iPad Air will go on sale.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocksCathay Pacific Airlines (00293.HK)Mobvista Inc. (01860.HK)Earnings release; pre-market US stocks,$Campbell Soup Company (CPB.US)$$Harmony Gold Mining Company (HMY.US)$$Serve Robotics (SERV.US)$will release earnings reports; post-market US stocks,and$UiPath (PATH.US)$Release earnings report;

Thursday (March 12)

Keywords: Li Auto earnings report, Adobe earnings report, U.S. initial jobless claims, closing of the National People's Congress meeting, talks between the Japanese Prime Minister and Middle Eastern envoys

In terms of economic data, the U.S. will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 at 20:30, with the previous figure at 213,000 people.

In terms of financial events, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takachi will hold talks with Middle Eastern envoys; the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress will conclude in the afternoon.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks$Swire Properties (01972.HK)$$Li Auto-W(02015.HK)$ Li Auto (LI.US) Earnings release; pre-market U.S. stocks, $Dollar General (DG.US)$$Futu Holdings Ltd (FUTU.US)$Aurora (JG.US) Release earnings report; post-market for U.S. stocks,$Adobe(ADBE.US)$$Lennar Corporation (LEN.US)$$Rubrik (RBRK.US)$$SentinelOne (S.US)$Release earnings report;

Friday (March 13)

Keywords: US Core PCE, US GDP, Durable Goods Orders

In terms of economic data, the US will announce the initial month-on-month value of durable goods orders for January at 20:30, with an expected value of 0.4% and a previous value of -1.4%; the revised annualized quarter-on-quarter value of real GDP for Q4, with an expected value of 1.4% and a previous value of 1.4%; and the year-on-year value of the core PCE price index for January, with an expected value of 3.1% and a previous value of 3%.

In terms of performance, Hong Kong stocks$Brunocoo(00325.HK)$CITIC Resources (01205.HK)Earnings release; pre-market US stocks,$Century Casinos (CNTY.US)$RLX Technology (RLX.US)$VEON Ltd (VEON.US)$Released financial reports.

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A new week begins, wishing all fellow investors successful investments!

Editor/Wendey

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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