The upcoming week will be filled with major events in the global market. The conflict involving the United States, Iran, and Israel has entered its third week, with investors closely monitoring the impact of the Middle Eastern conflict on expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, as well as the effects of the latest developments in the Iran war on the markets. Additionally, the 'Global Central Bank Super Week' led by the Federal Reserve coincides with NVIDIA’s GTC conference and earnings reports from major technology firms such as Alibaba.
Overview of Key Events
Bombardment from Seven Central Banks! Will the Federal Reserve Stay Put?
Amid escalating tensions in the Iran war causing a spike in oil prices and triggering a chain reaction across global asset classes, Federal Reserve policymakers will convene a meeting at 1:00 AM Beijing time on March 19. The central banks of Japan and Europe will also announce their interest rate decisions on the same day. Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged, but the updated dot plot may indicate only one rate cut within the year, reflecting a significant tightening compared to previous market expectations.
During the two-day meeting, Federal Reserve officials will evaluate the impact of the energy shock on inflation and economic growth. The Fed will also release its latest economic forecasts. Currently, due to the war factor, market expectations for interest rate cuts this year have significantly cooled, whereas anticipation for such cuts had been a key pillar supporting bullish sentiment in the stock market.
The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank are also expected to remain on hold during this period, but price risks stemming from energy costs could bring the option of a Japanese rate hike in April back into consideration. Economists at Citi and Deutsche Bank have adjusted their forecasts for the Reserve Bank of Australia, predicting that it will raise interest rates next week.
At the same time, the central banks of Canada, Indonesia, Brazil, Sweden, Switzerland, and Russia will successively announce their interest rate decisions next week, posing a major test for foreign exchange and bond markets.
China and the United States to Hold Sixth Round of Economic and Trade Consultations in Paris
On March 13, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the date and location for the sixth round of economic and trade consultations between China and the United States. According to the spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, following mutual agreement, He Lifeng, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to France from March 14 to 17 for economic and trade consultations with the U.S. side. Both parties will follow the important consensuses reached during President ****’s Busan meeting and previous phone calls, addressing key trade issues of mutual concern.
Back to AI as the Main Focus? GTC Conference & OFC Conference Set to Begin
Next week,$NVIDIA(NVDA.US)$ The GPU Technology Conference (GTC) will showcase the next-generation chip architecture, while the concurrent Optical Fiber Communication Conference and Exhibition (OFC) will focus on advancements in optical interconnect technology. Optical interconnects feature high bandwidth, low loss, and minimal latency, supporting communication between GPU clusters.
GTC Conference: Scheduled to take place from March 16 to March 19 according to U.S. West Coast time.
OFC Conference: Scheduled to take place from March 15 to March 19, Pacific Standard Time.
In a research report released on Monday, Bank of America noted that as artificial intelligence workloads impose higher performance demands on traditional copper conductors, the optical interconnect market is expected to quadruple in size by 2030, reaching $73 billion. BofA analyst Vivek Arya predicted that NVIDIA will lead this transformation and may become the first integrated system supplier to replace traditional copper-based server backplanes with CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) — a shift that will bring light-speed connections directly to processors.
Additionally, Orient Securities pointed out that NVIDIA’s GTC conference is about to convene, with expectations for the unveiling of the new VeraRubin platform and the latest advancements in the next-generation Feynman architecture. The VR platform is likely to adopt microchannel cold plate technology, which is projected to demand higher liquid cooling performance than the GB300 platform, potentially driving further increases in the value of liquid cooling systems. With rising shipment forecasts for companies like NVIDIA and Google, alongside growing chip cooling requirements, domestic suppliers entering overseas manufacturers' supply chains are anticipated to continue benefiting from development opportunities.
Next week will see a flurry of major earnings reports, with Tencent, Alibaba, Micron Technology, and Zijin Mining taking center stage.
In the coming week, Hong Kong-listed technology giants will enter a period of intensive earnings disclosures. $Tencent (00700.HK)$ 、 Alibaba-W (09988.HK) 、 $China Unicom (00762.HK)$ 、 $Zijin Mining (02899.HK)$ 、 $XPeng Motors-W(09868.HK)$ 、 $Geely Auto (00175.HK)$ Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their financial results. Concurrently, multiple U.S.-listed companies $Micron Technology(MU.US)$ 、 $Lululemon Athletica(LULU.US)$ 、 FedEx (FDX.US) and Accenture (ACN.US) will announce their latest quarterly performances.
Market attention on Tencent and Alibaba will focus on overseas gaming expansion and cloud business growth. Goldman Sachs expects Tencent's total revenue in the fourth quarter to increase by 13% year-over-year, with adjusted EBIT growing by 16%. Driven by an acceleration in its cloud business, revenue from fintech and enterprise services is forecasted to grow by 10%. For Alibaba, despite a 50% year-over-year decline in adjusted EBITA due to a RMB 23 billion investment drag from the instant retail sector, its cloud business profit margin is expected to stabilize at 9.0%.
Earnings releases in the U.S. stock market have entered a relatively quiet phase, with NVIDIA’s conference becoming the new catalyst. After the U.S. market closes on Wednesday, semiconductor memory giant Micron Technology will disclose its quarterly results. As a key supplier of AI infrastructure, its report will test whether demand for data centers and memory remains robust.
The impact of the Iran situation on the commodities market persists.
Despite transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing strategic reserves, and the United States implementing temporary measures to allow countries to purchase Russian oil already at sea to increase global supply, both major crude oil benchmarks rose for a fourth consecutive week.
All 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves, but market concerns do not appear to have eased significantly. US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for the formation of an international coalition to escort tankers through the strait as soon as military conditions permit; however, Iran's new leader has vowed to continue blocking this channel.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank, stated that 'hastily introduced measures are unlikely to ease market pressure.' Analysts at ANZ Bank noted, 'The US dollar strengthened due to its safe-haven status, especially as rising oil prices benefited the United States, a net energy exporter. Growing concerns about the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path suggest that higher oil prices increase the likelihood of inflationary pressures returning.'
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Further reading:[Prize] Mega Ships Assemble! Tencent, Alibaba, and Micron Technology Take Center Stage – A Quick Recap of Earnings Week (March 16-20)
Monday (March 16)
Keywords: China's January-February economic data, Leapmotor/ZKTeco earnings reports
On the economic data front, China will announce housing price figures for 70 large and medium-sized cities, year-on-year retail sales growth for January-February, and year-on-year industrial production growth for enterprises above designated size at 10:00 AM. The United States will release its Empire State Manufacturing Index for March at 8:30 PM and its February industrial output month-on-month rate at 9:15 PM.
In terms of financial events, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the operation of the national economy.
In terms of performance, Sinopec Oilfield Services (01033.HK) 、 Q Technology (Group) Co., Ltd. (01478.HK) 、 $Leapmotor (09863.HK)$ Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports, including those in the US stock market. $KE Holdings (BEKE.US)$ 、 $Dollar Tree (DLTR.US)$ 、 $21Vianet (VNET.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $SMTC Corporation (SMTC.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Tuesday (March 17)
Keywords: LULU/OKLO/Kingdee International Financial Report
In terms of economic data, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 11:30, and the United States will release the monthly rate of pending home sales for February at 22:00.
In terms of performance, Kingdee International (00268.HK) 、 China Literature Limited (00772.HK) Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports, including those in the US stock market. $GDS Holdings (GDS.US)$ 、 $Elbit Systems (ESLT.US)$ 、 $Tencent Music (TME.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $Lululemon Athletica(LULU.US)$ 、 $Oklo Inc(OKLO.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Wednesday (March 18)
Keywords: Tencent/Micron Technology earnings, U.S. February PPI
In terms of economic data, the U.S. February PPI year-on-year and month-on-month rates will be released at 20:30, the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision up to March 18 will be announced at 21:45, and U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending March 13 will be released at 22:30.
In terms of performance, $Tencent (00700.HK)$ 、 $Geely Auto (00175.HK)$ 、 China Tower Corporation Limited (00788.HK) Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports, including those in the US stock market. Macy's (M.US) 、 $Jabil (JBL.US)$ 、 $General Mills (GIS.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, $Micron Technology(MU.US)$ 、 $Red Cat Holdings(RCAT.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Thursday (March 19)
Keywords: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank interest rate decisions, Alibaba/AIA performance
In terms of economic data, the U.S. will announce the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision for March 18 at 02:00, the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 14 (in ten thousand) at 20:30, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for March, and the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision at 21:15.
Regarding financial events, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 02:30, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 14:30, and European Central Bank President Lagarde will hold a press conference on monetary policy at 21:45.
In terms of performance, AIA (Stock Code: 01299.HK) 、 $China Unicom (00762.HK)$ 、 $Horizonrobot-W(09660.HK)$ Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports, including those in the US stock market. $Alibaba(BABA.US)$ 、 $Intuitive Machines(LUNR.US)$ 、 $UP Fintech(TIGR.US)$ will announce earnings before the US stock market opens, FedEx (FDX.US) 、 $Planet Labs PBC(PL.US)$ will announce earnings after the US stock market closes.
Friday (March 20)
Keywords: XPeng Motors/Zijin Mining performance, China's LPR for March, Japanese stock market closed
In terms of economic data, the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for China as of March 20 will be announced at 09:00.
In terms of performance, China Hongqiao (01378.HK) 、 $Zijin Gold International (02259.HK)$ 、 $Zijin Mining (02899.HK)$ Several Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports. In addition,$XPeng Motors (XPEV.US)$ will announce its results before the US stock market opens.
In terms of new stock listings, the leader in PCB for computing power servers, $Guanghe Technology (01989.HK)$ will officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
In terms of market holidays, the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Japan will be closed for one day due to the Spring Equinox Day.
Stay ahead with key financial updates and discover investment opportunities early! Open Futubull > Market > US Stocks >Economic Calendar/Selected macroeconomic data, seize the investment opportunity!
Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/Rice