Since the conflict in the Middle East, cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a standstill. Data from Kpler shows that between March 1 and 23, only 144 commercial vessels transited the strait, marking a sharp 95% decline compared to peacetime. Currently, only a small number of ships are authorized to pass, primarily Iranian-flagged vessels. Of the observable petroleum transit flows, 98% is Iranian crude oil, averaging approximately 1.3 million barrels per day.
Since the conflict in the Middle East, cargo traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a standstill, with this globally critical energy trade route experiencing severe blockages.
On March 24, data from shipping analytics firm Kpler showed that between March 1 and 23 at 4 p.m. GMT, only 144 transits were completed by commercial vessels passing through the strait, representing a steep 95% drop from peacetime levels. The latest report from maritime intelligence agency Lloyd's List noted, “The passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted.”
Currently, a small number of authorized vessels are mainly relying on a northern route circumventing Iran’s Larak Island coastline, reportedly approved by Tehran. Iranian authorities are handling transit applications on a case-by-case basis, with some national governments negotiating bulk transit arrangements with Tehran.
The majority of transiting vessels are Iranian-flagged, with sanctioned ships accounting for over 40%.
Of the 144 transits, 91 were completed by oil and gas carriers, more than half of which were fully loaded, with most heading east out of the strait. Bridget Diakun, an analyst at Lloyd's List Intelligence, stated last week that among the vessels that have completed transits, those flagged or registered to Iran accounted for the largest share, followed closely by Greek operators and others.
An analysis of transit data by the French News Agency (AFP) revealed that since the outbreak of hostilities, over 40% of transiting vessels are on sanction lists maintained by the United States, the European Union, or the United Kingdom; among oil and gas carriers, this proportion approaches 59%. Diakun pointed out that since March 16, “All westbound vessels have been shadow fleets, gas carriers, or tankers, which absolutely dominate the transit flow.”
JPMorgan commodities analysts noted that the vast majority of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz is destined for Asia. Overall, 98% of observable oil transit flows are Iranian crude, averaging about 1.3 million barrels per day since early March. Meanwhile, according to MarineTraffic data, since March 3, approximately 11 liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers originally bound for Europe have been rerouted to Asia due to limited supply and rising spot prices.
A northern corridor is gradually taking shape, with some vessels already having paid to transit.
Tracking by Lloyd's List indicates that over 20 vessels have used the aforementioned northern 'corridor,' the majority owned by Greek shipowners, alongside vessels from Indian, Pakistani, and Syrian owners. According to Lloyd's List, at least one vetted vessel paid $2 million for safe passage.
On March 23, two Indian-flagged oil tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas and the Panamanian-flagged vessel 'Bright Gold' transited via the northern route, the latter carrying approximately 40,000 tons of methanol and expected to arrive at its destination on April 13. Additionally, a container ship named 'Newvoyager' completed its transit after paying fees to Iranian authorities, though the exact amount and payment method remain unconfirmed.
Editor/Melody