In terms of geopolitics, global markets continue to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East as the G7 prepares to discuss the release of strategic oil reserves. On the macroeconomic front, China's official PMI for March and the U.S. non-farm payroll data for March will be released. The earnings season is drawing to a close, with companies such as Zhipu, Gigadevice, Montage Technology, and Biren Technology disclosing their financial results in quick succession. Companies including Extreme Vision, Hantian Cheng, and Fourier are set to go public on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Both Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets will be closed on Friday in observance of Good Friday.
Overview of Key Events
The Middle East conflict escalates, with the U.S. military potentially launching a ground invasion of Iran; the G7 may convene to discuss the release of crude oil reserves.
On March 30, finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors of the G7 held a meeting to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves. According to information obtained by CCTV reporters, on March 28 local time, U.S. sources reported that the U.S. Department of Defense was preparing for a ground operation in Iran lasting several weeks. Officials stated that if President Trump approves the relevant plan, this move would mark a new phase in the war, with risks potentially significantly higher than in previous weeks. It is reported that thousands of U.S. troops and marines have already arrived in the Middle East region.
On the 28th local time, the Houthis announced the launch of multiple ballistic missiles toward southern Israel. In response, analysts indicated that this marks Yemen's formal involvement as a new front in the current Middle East conflict, with regional tensions likely to escalate further. The involvement of the Houthis could become a significant variable in future developments, increasing security risks for key shipping lanes such as the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. The spillover effects of regional tensions are becoming increasingly apparent.
Further reading:Middle East Conflict Escalates! Houthi Forces Engage in Combat; Is the Strategic Mandeb Strait, the 'Second Largest Energy Corridor,' at Risk?
U.S. March Non-Farm Payroll Data
On Friday, April 3, the U.S. will release its March non-farm payroll report. After February’s unexpected contraction of 92,000 jobs, the market widely anticipates a rebound to an increase of 55,000 jobs in March. Bloomberg predicts that the end of strikes will boost job recovery, with non-farm payrolls expected to rise by 80,000 in March, while the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4%. Whether the U.S. labor market can recover will be a key focus. Additionally, on Wednesday, April 1, the U.S. will release its March ADP employment change data. As an important leading indicator for the Friday non-farm report, this data will provide early clues about corporate hiring trends.
The Hong Kong stock earnings season is drawing to a close, with the hard technology and AI sectors facing major performance tests.
Large model companies$KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$, domestic GPU companies$BIREN TECH (06082.HK)$、$SERES (09927.HK)$、$UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK)$、$Ganfeng Lithium Group (002460.SZ)$、$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$are set to release their reports in quick succession, providing direct guidance for the subsequent market trend direction.
Multiple FOMC Voting Members Deliver Speeches
On March 31, Williams, permanent voting member of the FOMC and president of the New York Federal Reserve, delivered a speech. On April 1, Musalem, 2028 FOMC voting member and president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, spoke on the U.S. economy and monetary policy. On April 2, Goolsbee, 2027 FOMC voting member and president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, delivered opening remarks at an event hosted by the bank.
Key Earnings Calendar for the Week Ahead
Monday (March 30)
Keywords: G7 finance ministers, energy ministers hold meeting
In terms of financial events, the G7 finance ministers, energy ministers, and central bank governors will convene to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves; Federal Reserve Chair Powell will appear in Harvard University's Principles of Economics class shortly after the U.S. stock market opens on Monday to participate in a discussion.
In terms of economic data, the Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for March will be released at 22:30.
In terms of new stock offerings, $DIAGENS-B (02526.HK)$、$EPIWORLD (02726.HK)$、$EXTREME VISION (06636.HK)$、$HUAYAN ROBOTICS (01021.HK)$will be listed.
Earnings-wise,$GIGADEVICE (03986.HK)$、$MONTAGE TECH (06809.HK)$、$BIREN TECH (06082.HK)$、$BANK OF CHINA (03988.HK)$、$ABC (01288.HK)$、$BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK)$、$CHINA SHENHUA (01088.HK)$、$MIDEA GROUP (00300.HK)$、$SF HOLDING (06936.HK)$、$SERES (09927.HK)$、$GANFENGLITHIUM (01772.HK)$、$SUNNY OPTICAL (02382.HK)$and other Hong Kong-listed companies will announce earnings reports. U.S. stocks$Americas Gold And Silver (USAS.US)$、$Sigma Lithium (SGML.US)$is scheduled to announce its earnings before the US stock market opens.
Tuesday (March 31st)
Keywords: Zhipu, Nike, US February JOLTs Job Openings
In terms of economic events, Williams, the permanent voting member of the FOMC and President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will deliver a speech at 04:00 AM.
Regarding economic data, China's official manufacturing PMI for March will be released at 9:30 AM; the US February JOLTs Job Openings will be announced at 10:00 PM.
In terms of new stock offerings, $FOURSEMI (03625.HK)$、 $TONGSHIFU (00664.HK)$It will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Earnings-wise,$KNOWLEDGE ATLAS (02513.HK)$、$BUSYMING (01768.HK)$、$UBTECH ROBOTICS (09880.HK)$、$MNSO (09896.HK)$、$CHINA VANKE (02202.HK)$and other Hong Kong-listed companies will release their earnings reports; US-listed$Chagee Holdings (CHA.US)$、$Bitfarms (BITF.US)$Earnings will be announced before the market opens,$Nike (NKE.US)$Earnings will be announced after the market closes.
Wednesday (April 1)
Keywords: U.S. ADP Employment Change for March, ISM Manufacturing PMI
In terms of financial events, new energy vehicle manufacturers such as Tesla will release their Q1 delivery data in quick succession. In the 'Compilation of Sell-Side Analyst Expectations' published on Thursday, Tesla has already revised down its delivery forecast for 2026 to 1.689 million units, compared to the compiled expectation of 1.75 million units announced in Q4 last year. Additionally, Musallem, President of the St. Louis Fed and a voting member of the 2028 FOMC, will deliver a speech on the U.S. economy and monetary policy at 21:05 Beijing time.
In terms of economic data, the U.S. ADP Employment Change for March will be released at 20:15; the U.S. Monthly Retail Sales Growth Rate for February will be released at 20:30; the final value of the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March will be released at 21:45; the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI for March will be released at 22:00.
Thursday (April 2)
Keywords: Initial Jobless Claims
In terms of financial events, Logan, President of the Dallas Fed and a 2026 FOMC voter, will deliver a speech at 23:00; French President Macron will pay a state visit to South Korea until April 3.
In terms of economic data, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 28 will be released at 20:30.
Friday (April 3)
Keywords: U.S. March Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate
Regarding market closures, Hong Kong and U.S. stock markets will be closed for one day due to Good Friday.
In terms of economic data, the U.S. March unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls will be released at 20:30 Beijing time; the final reading of the S&P Global Services PMI for March will be published at 21:45.
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/joryn