① Survey results indicate that South Korea's export value in March is expected to increase by 44.9% year-on-year, marking the strongest growth in nearly five years; ② Official data shows that for the first 20 days of this month, South Korea's export value grew by 50.4%, with semiconductor sales surging by 163.9%; ③ Analysts believe this is due to robust market demand for memory chips.
According to a survey released by the media on Monday (March 30), South Korea's exports in March may grow at the strongest pace in nearly five years due to a surge in chip demand driven by artificial intelligence investments. However, the war in the Middle East is likely to push up South Korea's imports and inflation to some extent.
According to the median forecast of 11 economists, South Korea, the fourth-largest economy in Asia and a bellwether for global trade, is expected to see its export value grow by 44.9% year-on-year in March, faster than the 28.7% growth rate in February. This would mark the strongest growth since May 2021 and represent the tenth consecutive month of year-on-year increases.
Chun Kyu-yeon, an economist at Hana Securities, stated, "The strong demand for memory chips has led to a sustained sharp rise in semiconductor prices." He also predicted that this year’s trade surplus will reach a record high.
Last week, official data from South Korea Customs showed that for the first 20 days of this month, South Korea’s export value grew by 50.4%, with semiconductor sales soaring by 163.9%. Specifically, shipments to the United States and China increased by 57.8% and 69.0%, respectively, while shipments to the European Union rose by 6.6%. This growth signifies the resilience of South Korea’s economy, often referred to as the 'canary in the coal mine' for the global economy amid geopolitical tensions, reflecting the recovery of global demand and vitality in domestic industries.
Jin-Wook, an economist at Citigroup, noted that rising chip and oil prices, along with one additional working day compared to the same period last year, are expected to boost trade for the month.
However, the impact of recent high oil prices will also be reflected in imports. In Monday’s (March 30) monthly survey, South Korea’s import value in March is expected to grow by 18.0% year-on-year, higher than the 7.5% increase in February, which would mark the largest rise since September 2022.
Park Sang-hyun, an economist at iM Securities, commented, “Shipments from the Middle East are expected to experience some disruptions.”
Based on this, the median forecast for South Korea’s trade surplus in March is $21.2 billion, higher than the $15.4 billion recorded last month, setting a new record high.
Additionally, the consumer inflation rate in March is expected to rise to 2.4%, the fastest pace in four months, compared to 2.0% in February.
Editor/Doris