The average retail price of gasoline in the United States surged over 30% in a single month, breaking above the $4 per gallon mark again, squeezing the household budgets of 40 million Americans. The domestic political pressure on Trump has mounted. On the same day, Trump stated that the 'Iran war would end in two to three weeks,' with the timeline coinciding closely. Analysts pointed out that high oil prices could persist into the US summer travel peak season.
The surge in U.S. gasoline prices beyond the $4 per gallon threshold has placed familiar political pressure on the White House, coinciding with Trump's most direct public statement to date regarding ending the Iran conflict.
On Tuesday, Trump told reporters at the White House that the U.S. could conclude the war within two to three weeks, with or without a peace agreement with Iran.
The market reaction was immediate—U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 1.5% on the day and continued its downward trend. Previously, WTI had closed above $100 per barrel for the first time on Monday but dropped below that level again early Wednesday.
For the 40 million Americans who purchase gasoline daily, a distant war is once again squeezing their household budgets. In March, the national average retail price of gasoline in the U.S. surged by over 30% in a single month, becoming one of the direct sources of current inflationary pressures.
The curve of political pressure in 2022 is repeating itself.
The last time the average U.S. gasoline price reached $4 per gallon was in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war triggered violent fluctuations in energy markets, elevated inflation, and subjected the sitting president to mounting political pressure from voters over rising living costs.
The current situation bears striking similarities. On the same day gasoline prices surpassed the $4 mark, Trump began speaking more directly about ending the Iran conflict. This timing is unlikely to be mere coincidence.
Domestic policy tools have failed; the Strait of Hormuz dominates oil prices.
In response to rising oil prices, the White House has implemented a series of measures: releasing strategic reserves, temporarily waiving long-standing shipping restrictions, and allowing higher ethanol blending ratios this summer.
However, these measures have had minimal effect. The fundamental reason lies in structural factors at the international level driving oil price trends, rather than domestic policies.
The scale of crude oil released from strategic reserves is disproportionate to the volume of oil stranded in the Strait of Hormuz. The two-month exemption period for shipping regulations also failed to achieve the expected effect due to tight supply in the global shipping market. The core variable in global energy prices remains the Strait of Hormuz.
Expectations of a ceasefire provide little relief for near-term concerns, and the path to lower oil prices remains long.
Even if Trump fulfills his promise of a ceasefire, whether gasoline prices can quickly fall remains a difficult question to answer.
If Iran maintains its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz at the end of the war, energy flows will remain highly uncertain for an extended period, and prices may stay elevated for quite some time.
Historical data provides a reference benchmark: In 2022, after U.S. gasoline prices exceeded $4 per gallon, it took a full five months for them to fall back below that level. Gasoline prices have always been characterized by the adage 'rise like a rocket, fall like a feather'—supply shocks often drive prices up rapidly, while declines are slow and prolonged.
If this round of price shock follows the same pattern, high oil prices will persist through the peak summer travel season in the U.S., which is precisely the period of the year with the most concentrated gasoline consumption and the greatest sensitivity to consumer sentiment. It also represents the politically most challenging window of pressure for Trump.
Editor/Liam