Tesla is about to release its first-quarter delivery data, with market expectations at approximately 381,000 vehicles, representing a decline of about 9% from the previous quarter. Despite year-on-year growth, the figure masks the reality of a slowdown in growth amid the cancellation of U.S. subsidies and a cooling of industry investment.
On Thursday, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ The first-quarter delivery data is expected to be released. The overall performance of the U.S. electric vehicle market has been lackluster, and the company's sales growth is also anticipated to moderate.
Tesla's shares rose 2.6% on Wednesday following reports that SpaceX, owned by Elon Musk, had confidentially filed for an initial public offering. Year-to-date, the stock has fallen approximately 15%.
In addition to delivery figures, Tesla will also provide an update on its energy business. Energy storage deployments are projected to grow by 38% year-over-year, reflecting continued strong demand.
Delivery Expectations and Sales Under Pressure
According to consensus estimates tracked by FactSet, analysts expect the company to deliver approximately 381,000 vehicles to customers during this period. If this estimate is met, it would represent a decline of about 9% from the December 2024 quarter but still reflect a 13% year-over-year increase.
Tesla delivered only 336,681 vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, marking its weakest delivery performance since mid-2022. At that time, Tesla was revamping its factories to produce the new Model Y SUV, a key driver of sales.
The removal of critical EV tax incentives in the U.S. last year has somewhat constrained Tesla's potential sales growth. Several automakers have scaled back investments in electric vehicles. General Motors (GM.N), for instance, reported on Wednesday that its EV sales fell nearly 19% year-over-year in the first quarter.
Regional Market Divergence and Short-Term Volatility
Meanwhile, after several months of sluggish performance in Europe, Tesla's sales rebounded in February. Demand for electric vehicles in China remains robust, with Tesla achieving growth in this key market in both January and February.
The company has also faced impacts stemming from CEO Elon Musk’s leadership of the U.S. Government Efficiency Department. A working paper from Yale University subsequently found that Tesla’s sales could have been significantly higher without the so-called 'Musk Effect.'
Strategic diversification between autonomous driving and robotics leads to scattered focus.
The significance of delivery reports for Tesla's stock price has been debated as investors shift their attention to broader objectives. These include the jointly advanced Terafab chip manufacturing project, the autonomous driving Robotaxi service, and humanoid robots that may play a role in factories and homes in the future.
Tesla is also focusing on autonomous driving. In January, Musk stated that, in the long term, Tesla would 'essentially' only produce self-driving cars. The luxury models Model S and Model X will also cease production after the June quarter to redirect capacity toward the Optimus robot.
However, Tesla has just postponed the unveiling of its next-generation robot, the Robotaxi service remains in its early stages, and the Terafab plan was only disclosed last month. These three key areas of investor focus have yet to deliver substantial positive impacts on the company’s financial performance.
Some analysts argue that shareholders should not overlook the importance of the electric vehicle business. They point out that despite significant growth in other sectors such as energy, the majority of Tesla's revenue still comes from its electric vehicle segment.
George Gianarikas remarked: 'Admittedly, Tesla’s narrative has shifted, with headlines now focused on various robotics and chip projects, but we remain firmly convinced of the inevitability of the electric mobility transition. The true revolution in transportation concerns not only who is driving but also the energy propelling mobility.'
Gianarikas assigned Tesla a 'Buy' rating but lowered the target price from $520 to $420 in his latest report, forecasting deliveries of approximately 370,000 units for the March quarter.
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Editor/joryn