①JPMorgan warned on Thursday that oil prices could rise to $120 to $130 per barrel in the short term; ②The bank also noted that if the disruption of oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persists until mid-May, there is a risk of oil prices exceeding $150.
JPMorgan stated in a report released on Thursday that oil prices could rise to between $120 and $130 per barrel in the short term, with risks of exceeding $150 if the disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz persists until mid-May.
JPMorgan's baseline assumption is that after a period of tight supply and declining inventories, the issue of supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz will ultimately be resolved through negotiations.
The report pointed out that under this scenario, oil prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel throughout the second quarter. Subsequently, driven by the partial reopening of the strait and the gradual normalization of oil inventories, oil prices are projected to ease in the second half of 2026.
JPMorgan warned that the magnitude and duration of the oil price surge will be key factors in determining the severity of broader macroeconomic impacts. If high oil prices persist, they could exacerbate the risk of weakening demand and potentially trigger a recession.
On Thursday, oil prices surged significantly amid volatile trading after U.S. President Trump indicated that the United States would continue its attacks on Iran. By the close of trading, $Brent Last Day Financial Futures (JUN6) (BZmain.US)$ it rose by 7.78%, closing at $109.05 per barrel. $Crude Oil Futures (MAY6) (CLmain.US)$ It surged by 11.93%, closing at $112.06 per barrel.
This week, reports indicated that with the ongoing obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz, the Trump administration is assessing the risks of oil prices climbing to $150 per barrel or even higher. The reports also noted that the administration currently views prices above $100 per barrel as the 'baseline scenario' and does not rule out the extreme possibility of prices reaching $200.
The average gasoline price in the U.S. has surpassed $4 per gallon this week for the first time since 2022. Energy expert Patrick De Haan stated that if passage through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be restored in the short term, U.S. gasoline prices may exceed $5 per gallon within a month, setting a new record high.
At present, analysts and investors are closely monitoring when and how the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for energy transportation, will reopen to alleviate the severe supply shocks faced by Asian economies.
On Thursday, as more news about the Strait of Hormuz emerged, market optimism regarding the partial resumption of navigation through the strait increased somewhat.
According to domestic media citing Iranian official media on Thursday, Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement aimed at implementing 'navigation supervision' for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while emphasizing that it will not restrict vessel passage. Meanwhile, the UK stated that dozens of countries are discussing proposals to resolve the Hormuz crisis.
Editor/Doris