Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister has signaled a limited easing, stating that Iran is drafting a strait supervision agreement with Oman. Iran seeks to replace unilateral control with joint supervision, but its core aim remains to dominate the navigation rules in order to consolidate its geopolitical leverage.
According to The New York Times, Iran stated on Thursday that it intends to continue overseeing shipping traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz even after the war ends, though it insists it will not impose restrictions.
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, said that Iran is drafting an agreement that would allow Iran and Oman to 'monitor transit traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,' as reported by Iranian state news agencies.
But Gharibabadi stated that such supervision 'will naturally not mean restriction; rather, it aims to facilitate vessels passing through this route, ensure their safe passage, and provide better services.'
During the war, Iran has continuously reinforced its claims of jurisdiction there, recently even planning to charge tolls for passing ships.
To the left of this windswept beach at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, oil tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers are densely lined up on the horizon. These vessels have been stranded in the Persian Gulf since the U.S.-Israel war against Iran began over a month ago.
On the right, the deep blue waters just 40 miles off Iran’s coast remain eerily empty. Before the war, over a hundred ships passed daily; now, only a handful manage to navigate through the Strait of Hormuz each day. They must detour around Iranian territorial waters and often pay exorbitant 'tolls' to the Iranian regime.
This international waterway, once responsible for carrying one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, is now firmly under Iran’s control, becoming its greatest leverage against the United States, Gulf neighbors, and the global economy. Whether Iran wins or loses this war primarily hinges on whether it can maintain control of the strait—and thereby hold the key to the global energy market—after the conflict ends.
“For Iran, the Strait of Hormuz is now more important than its nuclear program. The nuclear program is symbolic and hasn’t provided any deterrence,” said Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and former senior U.S. State Department official who participated in informal consultations with Iranian representatives. “The only reason Iran has survived this war so far is because of the strait. Iran’s strategy is clear: ultimately, they must keep the strait in their hands because it is their sole deterrent and source of revenue.”
In fact, the Iranian regime has unveiled ambitious plans regarding the Strait of Hormuz. The National Security Committee of Iran’s parliament has advanced new legislation requiring all transiting vessels to pay tolls and banning ships from ‘non-friendly nations’ from entering the Persian Gulf. Iran hopes to use this as leverage to pressure Europe, Japan, and others into lifting economic sanctions while permanently expelling the U.S. Navy from Gulf waters.
“Trump has finally achieved his dream of regime change—but only in terms of regional maritime order. The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for him; it will open only for those who comply with Iran’s new laws,” said Ebrahim Azizi, chairman of the committee.
Iranian officials compared the proposed toll system to the Suez Canal, which generates tens of billions of dollars in revenue for Egypt annually. However, there is a fundamental legal distinction between the two waterways. The Strait of Hormuz is a natural waterway, not an artificial canal cutting through sovereign territory. Iran controls only one side of the strait, with the other side being Oman’s exclave of Musandam.
"From any legal perspective, it is impossible to justify why Iran has the right to regulate maritime traffic on Oman’s side," said Professor James D. Fry, an expert in international maritime law at the University of Hong Kong Law School.
U.S. President Trump has made contradictory statements. In a speech on Wednesday local time, he stated that the U.S. does not import oil from the Gulf and that European and Asian countries, which depend on Gulf oil, should take responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. "They must step in and secure the strait; it’s effortless for them," he said. He further noted that once the war ends, "the strait will naturally reopen."
Just hours earlier, Trump had posted on Truth Social that the U.S. would obliterate Iran until the strait was "completely free and open." He has already deployed thousands of additional Marines and Army soldiers to the Middle East, who could be used for ground operations to forcibly clear the strait. Given Iran's use of drones, missiles, and small fast boats to attack vessels attempting to break the blockade, such operations, if ordered, would risk significant casualties.
Hassan Alhasan, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former Bahraini national security official, said that ending the war in the short term while allowing Iran to retain control over this critical waterway would be a geopolitical disaster for the U.S. and its allies and partners in the Middle East and globally.
"Iran could impose selective sanctions on any country at will and put strait navigation at risk whenever it chooses," Alhasan said. "This would give Iran permanent leverage over the economies of Gulf nations and global energy security, keeping it damaged yet still threatening, harboring resentment and maintaining hostility toward most regional states."
Gulf nations have attempted to mitigate the impact of the strait’s closure. Saudi Arabia has rerouted some oil exports via pipelines to the Red Sea port of Yanbu; the UAE has diverted oil shipments to the Port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman — a vast oil and gas storage complex that continues loading ships even after being hit by fires caused by Iranian drone strikes in the early stages of the war. At Khor Fakkan Port near the UAE, trucks queued for miles to pick up cargo that can no longer reach Dubai.
In the Emirati town of Al Jazir near the Strait of Hormuz, newly posted posters depict the rulers of Gulf monarchies surrounded by soldiers, fighter jets, and helicopters. Many residential buildings display billboards reading: "I fortify you, my homeland, in the name of God."
To date, European and Asian countries have shown little interest in joining any U.S.-led military operation to reopen the strait. French President Macron stated on Thursday that a military solution for the Strait of Hormuz is unrealistic and that freedom of navigation can only be restored through coordination with Iran.
While GCC countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia possess significant naval and air capabilities, diplomats and officials say they are unlikely to engage in a conflict with Iran over the strait without substantial U.S. involvement.
However, with the participation of regional countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, along with the support of the majority of the international community, these Gulf nations can still exert significant political and economic pressure on the Iranian regime, compelling it to reopen the waterway for free passage. Even Russia, Iran's closest ally, stated this week that any arrangement concerning the Strait of Hormuz must be unanimously agreed upon by all coastal states in the Gulf.
Mehran Haghirian, director of research at the think tank Bourse & Bazaar, stated that if Iran attempts to forcibly control the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict ends, it would amount to piracy. "This would only lead to Iran's further isolation than it is now. How could the GCC countries possibly allow their lifeline to be controlled by Iran?" he said. "The conflict will not be limited to the GCC nations but will affect the entire international community—from Indonesia, Burkina Faso, to Colombia—all countries rely on the Strait of Hormuz in one way or another."
Another more realistic challenge is that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is currently designated as a terrorist organization by multiple countries, including the United States and EU member states. Financial transactions with Iran, including the payment of passage fees through the Strait, are subject to U.S. sanctions, deterring large global shipping companies from engaging lightly.
"In this absurd era of maritime 'protection fees,' shipowners who refuse to pay risk their vessels, but once they pay, they jeopardize their future within the global financial system," said Jason Chuah, professor of maritime law at City, University of London. "What Iran demands is not just a passage fee but a test of loyalty. It is a test no commercial entity can pass."
Editor/Rocky