In terms of geopolitics, the situation in Iran remains uncertain as Trump demands that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 EST; on the macro front, inflation data from both China and the US will be released. Due to energy volatility, expectations are for a rise in US CPI; the Fed's minutes from the March meeting will also be released.
Key Schedule for the Upcoming Week
The situation in Iran is complex, with Trump issuing another 'ultimatum'.
According to reports from Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6 EST, which Iran rejected as an 'ultimatum.'
April 6 is also the deadline set by Trump for postponing airstrikes on Iran's energy facilities. However, the situation in the Middle East continues to evolve, with recent military actions from both sides still escalating.
China's CPI, PPI, and financial data
On April 10, China will release its CPI and PPI data for March. Guosheng Securities analysis suggests that the input price index for raw materials rose by 9.1 percentage points in March, while factory prices increased by 4.8 percentage points, indicating a significant recovery in overall price levels in the manufacturing sector. Notably, price indices for industries such as petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing, as well as chemical raw materials and chemical products, exceeded 70%. Rising prices of oil, chemicals, and other raw materials, combined with increased logistics costs, suggest that March's PPI may turn positive from negative.
During the week of April 9, China’s financial data for March is expected to be released. Analysts predict a seasonal increase in credit issuance, but a slower pace of government bond issuance compared to the same period last year, resulting in a slight year-on-year decline in aggregate financing and M1 growth.
US March CPI and February PCE
On April 10, the US will announce its CPI data for March. Affected by surging energy prices due to the war in Iran, markets generally expect a significant rise in inflation. The month-on-month increase in overall CPI for March is projected to reach 0.9%, the highest since June 2022, with the year-on-year rate expected to rise from 2.4% to 3.3%.
BNP Paribas noted in its outlook on CPI data: “We believe the first phase of pass-through effects from rising oil prices will manifest through motor vehicle fuel prices in March.” Meanwhile, inflation concerns driven by the war have effectively ruled out the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, which had previously been a key factor supporting stock market gains.
On April 9, the United States will release the PCE price index for February, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. The market expects that the core PCE inflation month-on-month may strengthen from 0.36% to 0.44%, while the year-on-year growth rate could decline from 3.1% to 3.0%. Since September last year, the core PCE and core CPI have shown significant divergence due to differences in statistical methodology. The actual GDP data for Q4 in the United States will also be released on the same day.
The Federal Reserve releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting
At 2:00 AM Beijing time on April 9, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the FOMC meeting held on March 17-18. The market expects the minutes to show that the committee prefers to adopt a wait-and-see approach amid heightened uncertainty caused by the Iran war. Powell hinted that the committee would only consider overlooking the oil shock if it sees progress in core inflation as the effects of tariffs wear off.
Samsung Electronics earnings forecast may be released
Samsung Electronics is set to release its earnings forecast for the first quarter of 2026 next Tuesday, with the market expecting its quarterly operating profit to approach last year’s annual level.
According to analysts' consensus estimates compiled by LSEG, Samsung Electronics’ operating profit for January to March this year is expected to reach 40.5 trillion Korean won, approximately 269 billion US dollars. For comparison, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer reported an annual operating profit of 43.6 trillion Korean won for 2025. Meanwhile, LSEG data shows that Samsung Electronics’ revenue in the first quarter is projected to grow by 50% year-on-year, driven by an unprecedented super cycle in memory chips.
Monday (April 6)
Keywords: Trump sets deadline, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Hong Kong stock market closed
In terms of economic data, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March in the United States will be released.
22:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for March
In terms of major events, April 6 was the deadline set by Trump for postponing airstrikes on Iran's energy facilities. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, which Iran rejected.
In terms of market closure, Hong Kong stocks were closed today due to the Qingming Festival holiday.
Tuesday (April 7)
Keywords: Durable Goods Orders, New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation, Samsung Electronics, Hong Kong Stock Market Closure
In terms of economic data, the monthly rate of U.S. durable goods orders for February and the New York Fed’s 1-year inflation expectation for March will be released.
20:30 U.S. February Durable Goods Orders Monthly Rate
23:00 U.S. March New York Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectation
In terms of earnings reports, Samsung Electronics will release its Q1 2026 earnings forecast. The market expects its quarterly operating profit to approach last year’s annual level.
In terms of market closure, Hong Kong stocks were closed today due to the Easter holiday.
Wednesday (April 8)
Keywords: Crude oil data, New Zealand interest rate decision
In terms of economic data, crude oil-related data and the New Zealand interest rate decision will be released.
04:30 US API crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 (in million barrels)
10:00 New Zealand Federal Reserve interest rate decision as of April 8
22:30 US EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending April 3 (in million barrels)
In terms of financial events, at 00:35, Goolsbee, a voting member of the 2027 FOMC and president of the Chicago Federal Reserve, will deliver a speech on monetary policy.
Thursday (April 9)
Keywords: Fed meeting minutes, February core PCE, US Q4 GDP, unemployment benefits, Nio
In terms of economic data, key releases will include February core PCE data, US Q4 GDP, and initial jobless claims from the previous week.
20:30 US February core PCE price index year-over-year
20:30 Finalized annualized quarterly rate of U.S. Q4 real GDP
20:30 Number of U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 (in ten thousands)
In terms of financial events, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its meeting; Nio will officially hold the product and technology launch event for its flagship large SUV, the Nio ES9, on April 9. The Nio ES9 will make its debut at the same time.
02:00 Federal Reserve meeting minutes
Friday (April 10)
Keywords: China CPI, U.S. CPI, Consumer Confidence Index
In terms of economic data, China's CPI, U.S. CPI, and the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's U.S. consumer confidence index for April will be released successively.
09:30 China's March CPI year-on-year growth rate
20:30 U.S. March CPI year-on-year growth rate, U.S. March CPI month-on-month growth rate
22:00 Preliminary value of U.S. one-year inflation expectations for April, preliminary value of the University of Michigan's U.S. consumer confidence index for April
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Wishing all fellow investors a successful week ahead!
Editor/Lambor