OPEC believes that global oil demand has not yet peaked and will continue to grow robustly, rising from an average of 105.1 million barrels per day in 2025 to 124.1 million barrels per day by 2050. Previously, the IEA revised downward its forecast for this year's global oil demand growth, now expecting a reduction of 1.1 million barrels per day.
OPEC believes that global oil demand has not yet peaked and forecasts it will remain on a path of 'robust growth,' as governments in the United States, Europe, and other regions prioritize energy security and affordability alongside their climate goals. OPEC stated:
“Growing concerns over energy security and affordability have reshaped the global energy policy landscape. In many cases, these shifts reflect a reversal, delay, or cancellation of previously ambitious targets and commitments aimed at reducing oil demand.”
In its annual World Oil Outlook report, OPEC projects that global oil demand will rise from an average of 105.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025 to 113.3 mb/d by 2030, reaching 124.1 mb/d by 2050.
The organization’s optimistic outlook on oil demand stands in sharp contrast to forecasts from other institutions such as the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA recently revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth this year—citing disruptions from the U.S.-Israeli military conflict with Iran—and now expects demand to decline by 1.1 mb/d compared to last year.
With the conflict now resolved and the Strait of Hormuz reopened this week, OPEC members such as Kuwait are taking action to swiftly restore oil production to pre-war levels.
Demand growth is coming from Asia, Africa, and Latin America, while U.S. shale output has already peaked.
The report indicates that the largest increases in oil demand over the coming decades will originate from Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. India will be the single largest contributor, adding 8.1 mb/d to its daily demand over the entire forecast period.
From a sectoral perspective, the fastest-growing segments are expected to be road transport, petrochemicals, and aviation.
OPEC also noted that U.S. shale oil production is expected to peak in 2025 at just above 9 mb/d. The organization added that, in the coming years, its competitors will only be able to meet about half of the projected increase in demand.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais stated:
The scale of global energy demand necessitates sustained investment across all energy sources and technologies today. For oil alone, up to $17.7 trillion in investment—over $700 billion annually from 2026 to 2050—will be required to meet long-term demand.
Editor/Liam